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If we look at last market crashes (specifically 01, 08, and 2020) we can see they ALWAYS happen after the yield curve un-inverts. About 6-12 months after the yield curve normalizes the crash happens.
Look at a chart of the 10year minus 2 years yield. It inverts, bottoms out, then as the Fed cuts rates it un-inverts. Then a little while after the un-inversion the crash happens.
Currently we are still inverted, but once it un-inverts (probably later this year) we will have probably less than a year before the crash. This would mean the crash will likely happen early to mid 2025
Great summation Greg. We've gone from reliving ww1, to ww2 again. All as Moodys downgraded Israel's five largest banks. No coincidence there I'm sure.