(ECONOMY IN FREEFALL). TIMELINE TO FULL-ON COLLAPSE. Mannarino
From Greg M
Lions. Please take the time to read through this in its entirety.
Timeline: Below I have put together the most likely scenario moving forward based on a massive amount of data.
May–June: Expect weakening economic prints, credit warnings, soft earnings
July–August: Market shock, (high probability of a credit event, defaults, regional bank issues)
Fall 2025: Major Fed response, liquidity injections begin again
Winter: Recession undeniable, job losses surge, commodities spike
Lions… Credit markets are tightening, banks are lending less, defaults are rising, and corporate bankruptcies are climbing. Retail investors are pulling capital, and institutions are hoarding cash.
Small business collapse = systemic fracture. Small businesses are the real engine of the economy. They’re being crushed by.
Higher operating costs.
Reduced consumer demand.
Rising insurance, wage, and debt servicing pressures.
Directly due to the current environment, this is not recoverable in the short term. Once the small business backbone cracks, and it already is, the ripple effect hits labor, then housing, then consumer spending across the board.
Mass layoffs on deck. We are already starting to see major layoffs especially in tech, finance, and even logistics.
The real tsunami hasn’t hit yet, but when it does, unemployment will spike fast, and confidence will collapse.
Watch for an “unexpected” uptick in initial jobless claims in the next few reports. (Its always “unexpected.”)
Housing is losing altitude. Mortgage demand is collapsing. Commercial real estate? Dead man walking. Office vacancies + refinance risk = detonation.
Consumer is tapped out. Credit card balances at all-time highs. Delinquencies rising. Real wages are stagnant or declining after adjusting for real inflation (not the sugarcoated CPI garbage). Consumer sentiment is falling, and they’re pulling back fast.
Where it leads… Equity markets WILL follow once credit tightens further and layoffs surge.
The “everything bubble” bursts not from a pin, but from the weight of its own leverage.
EXPECT A Sudden Credit Event Followed by a market sell-off.
Small Business Collapse = Systemic Breakdown The backbone of the U.S. economy, small business, is being choked out DELIBERATELY. High input costs, weakening demand, debt burdens, and rising insurance premiums are breaking their backs.
This is the end of local enterprise… and the beginning of mass labor contraction.
Liquidity Is Vanishing. Banks are tightening lending, institutions are hoarding, and velocity of money is flatlining. This is pre-recession behavior on steroids.
Mass Layoffs Are Coming/Have Already Started.
Tech and finance have begun trimming, but the real bloodletting is still ahead. Watch closely for a surge in initial jobless claims. Once that starts, it will accelerate fast with ripple effects on housing, consumer spending, and confidence.
The Consumer Is Tapped Out
Credit cards maxed. Delinquencies rising. Wages losing ground against real inflation.
People are breaking and when they stop spending, corporate earnings implode.
The Fed… Rate cuts WILL confirm collapse.
SOULTION: RETURN PURCHASING POWER TO THE CURRENCY IMMEDIATELY!
GM
I’m investing in Soup Kitchens … I wish that was funny but it ain’t!!
Greg’s most profound and prophetic statement here?? Expect the “unexpected.” My “Spidey Senses” tell me May will be a bumpy ride. Not a very scientific analysis I know, but humans have instincts too. We talk over them and shut them out because we have bigger brains than animals, but we all know something is coming. There IS such a thing as a “Collective Consciousness.”