ECONOMY: Things Just Went From BAD To MUCH WORSE... And You Haven't Seen ANYTHING YET! Mannarino
From Greg M
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Where in the middle of full out economic, political and military warfare going on world over. You know it's happening, you can see it, if you don't want to see it and keep your blinders on that's okay as well because it is effecting the whole world over regardless of the blinder or the rose colored glasses you may wear.
There are those folks going after each other now in full force and we're unfortunately sitting in the front row seats whether we want to or not because they are going to finish their fight against each other to the very end of that sh__ show!
As far as the markets, anyone knew that all the financial investment banks want a hefty hefty hefty
profit so they get their bonuses at the end of the year regardless of what happens January and
beyond so the dropping of the dollar, etc. etc. to pat the "markets on their proverbial baby ass__
so as to comfort the poor little dears! I think the Fed will say anything right now to make the
"mawkets" feel comfi until the bonuses pour forth unto the legion of investment banks, etc.
Having said that, expect the Fed to continue increasing the Fed Rate regardless of what the
"mawkets" want because you do the little chicken feed rate hikes you end up with no end of
inflation just a continuation of the bad economics that will eventually strangle the real market
place with higher prices and less discretionary dollars to buy items. So, I'm your Doctor and
I know you need the treatment to get rid of your ailment "but" you don't like the taste of the
treatment necessary so I place some sugar coating on the outside of the treatment to make it
"acceptable" to the "mawkets". Because the "mawkets" are more important than sqawking
babies crying over their spilt milk each day, the Fed will continue substantial rate hikes into
2023. That's because once upon the time the Fed had the same nonsense go on decades ago
and the Fed in those early stages "refused" to make the substantial increase of the Fed Rate
just hoping to limp along "but' that ended up decades ago in stagflation and backwardization
of the markets going forward. Then Volker had to come in and do a massive increase and the
that treatment led the markets of the day to stagger "but" the net outcome of the rate increases
was it dealt the inflationary process such a blow that the "markets" were safe once again and
they continued until the next debacle in 2007-2008. I don't think any major players want the
market to be vanquished nor gamble everything will just miraculously get better with interest
rate increase "light".
In that future projection out into 2023-2024, expect the dollar to rise in value again as interest
rates are raised to break the inflation fever even as the soufley economy of the Covid times
goes down considerably to the actual normal economic activity levels. Under those conditions
and circumstances, I am estimating that commodities will shrink in value as this goes forward
with gold falling precipitously to $850-$950 base line. Silver from the $22.00 of current markets
to $10.56-$12.27 and in like kind and quality all other commodities will stagger accordingly.
Naturally, the stock market will lurch downward and rapidly at some point, which I am anticipating
to be July-August, 2023 by a deviation point of 25%-32%. Then, the stock market will gurgle up
and down in a weaving fashion until it begins a positive ladder of gains forward after this bear
market lows have been completed.
So, expect rate hikes shortly from the Fed, reduced economic levels from the high times at
Ridgemont High the investors have been juicing and goosing over the last few years as eventually folks will understand not just here in the US but around the world actual economies of scale were
and are lower than during the Covid Fantasy Money Infusion Days that are now in the rear view
mirror like the sun setting only to wait for the next "morning sun rising once again" after a night
of darkness.
Greg,
Nothing new.
I disagree with you
I've been telling you for quite some time now that this market<>based on short, intermediate, long and historical charts this market will continue on <>IMO<>through the end of 2023 before we see that significant correction.
All asset classes will be sold off including precious metals.
The charts and the cycles are reflecting that.
Markets 4 years up/down
Commodities 3 years up/down.
Powell did the 3 card Monty yesterday.
He mentioned there was the possibility of a soft landing.
Just like sugar candy for the kids on the street.
The Fed has always overreached.
The Santa Claus rally will be a difficult one.
The charts are reading markets down short term through the 8th an then a bump with a selloff before year end.
STOP reading all the negative news<>it's puts you in a bad state of mind<>lighten up or you will end up with a stroke or heart attack.
You have yourself convinced that the MMRI is the greatest thing since sliced bread<>NOT
I was taught at a very young age "Give up arrogance and begin to gain some understanding"
What fascinates me is algorithms <>interesting observation<>now when I delete junk mail the junk mail sets up an algorithm to replace it .
One final note I mentioned APO bought at $50.52 closed today @ $69.22 no a buy now.
It's a long term hold for our family and friends.
Glad you took some time off<>I can't watch you everyday.
So I'll continue to drop in periodically with my comments.
Stay healthy and relax.
Thanks,
WOT