EXPECT INFLATION TO SKYROCKET BEYOND YOUR WILDEST NIGHTMARES... Here's Why. Mannarino
From Greg M
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I am a relatively new follower, and I love every posting. I would not miss one. Thank you for sharing your wealth of knowledge as well as trying to keep your followers on the straight and narrow.
Today's post was honest, but a bit painful. Pain I understand. Next year will be my 50th year in the investment management business. I started out of business school right into the jaws of a horrible bear market. Being all business school graduates, we probably had some brains (or so we thought!), but really not a lot of practical experience in managing money. It got so bad that we all went to the library to check out books on how to invest. It was a waste of time. The truth was that everything was going down, and it did not matter what strategy you employed. I remember two stock brokers that were friends would start out each day in the basement of their building praying. Fortunately, I only had a few clients as I was new.
Art Cashin said his Dad told him once that the end of the world was a one-off, and not to worry if that happens. I thought '73-'74 was the end of the world. It did not end. I thought New York City going bankrupt a couple of years later was the end. It did not end. So, too, with '81-'82, and the Crash of '87.
I began to get the hang of it. The world never ends, the money just changes hands to smart people that bought real estate in NYC, the oil patch in early '80, and stocks/bonds in '82 and '87.
I know the title of your newsletter implies it is for trading. It might work for you, but for most people, it is a recipe for under-performance. During the halcyon days of the Magellan Fund, the Fund generated double-digit returns, but Fidelity computed less than 4% for the investors. Why? They traded it.
I have gone through periods just like we are experiencing now. Advising/informing people is a very difficult, thankless job. You have to be a bit of a nut job with an iron central nervous system to do it. You have to enjoy the good parts, but be willing to suffer through the inevitable mistakes. The good news about the mistakes is that they are not important if you get the long-term themes right. Take a look at the Crash of '87 on a long-term chart. It's a blip.
I think the majority of your followers understand that. You are terrific, and a real gift to the investment world. If you get ugly emails from people expecting you to be Nostradamus, ignore them. You constantly remind people to do their own homework, and that you make mistakes, too. Tell them to unsubscribe!
What I am looking for in your posts are "the big picture" and actionable long-term ideas. So should the rest of your followers. As well as the fabulous entertainment aspect! Most importantly, you are telling the truth. You are a good man.
Thank you for everything you do.
Hey Greg, i’ve been kinda hard on you lately. I really appreciate this video. It takes a real man to admit when hes wrong. You may be making a very smart decision. We need more clarity at this moment before we react. Thanks for all your work Greg.