Lions! Evaluating Why My Last SPY Short Went Wrong. (Plus a NEW 100% free SWING TRADING SET UP).

From Greg M

Lions and friends.

Below is a new swing trading set up which I have been using, mostly with good win rates. I would like to share this with you, and evaluate why I believe that my last trade failed.

Unfortunately, as most of you already know, my last SPY was a loss. With that, and as I always do after a situation like that, is I try to understand why the trade failed.

Below is a swing trading system which I developed for using on the Think Or Swim platform, and I placed all the settings below the chart. (I am pretty certain that you can use these setting on other charting systems as well).

Click on the chart.

Settings.

LOOK CLOSELY AT THE CHART ABOVE.

What I look for with each swing trade is a crossing of the Hull Moving Average (blue line top of the chart settings above), either above or below the Bollinger Bands settings (close) 0,40,-0.2,0.2 (which I made green and red dashed lines) for entry/exit points either long or short. A short position should be entered IF the blue Hull MA crosses below the Bollinger Bands settings (close) 0,40,-0.2,0.2 green and red broken lines, and a long position should be entered IF the blue Hull MA crosses above the Bollinger Bands settings (close) 0,40,-0.2,0.2 green and red broken lines .

I also use the Ehlers Stochastic, bottom line settings above, to correlate what is happening on the chart above.

Although all these things did line up, the last trade failed.

Why?

I believe the key here is, and why my last trade failed, is I missed a NON-widening of the surrounding purple dashed line, also Bollinger Bands, with these settings: (close) 0, 20,-2.0.2.0 (I made these lines purple when setting up the charting system, but you can make these any color you want)

If you look at the previous entry/exit points, the purple dashed line, Bollinger Bands, with these settings: (close) 0, 20,-2.0.2.0 were widening/wider.

The wider/widening purple Bollinger Band signals increasing volatility.

So what is the take away here?

Although it is IMPOSSIBLE for anyone to win every trade, we can learn things from trades which go wrong, and apply that understanding in future trades.

GM