Lions…
As you know, I study economic/market and financial system dynamics- and the ripple effect which follows. With that, I want to talk about 5 dynamics currently in play.
The job market stall. 2. The manufacturing recession. 3. The import collapse. 4. The dollar’s destruction, and 5. The middle class wealth extraction.
Each of these above has its own ripple effect however, collectively they have wider implications.
Let’s break this down.
US Job Market Flatlining, Early Sign of Broader Collapse.
By their own numbers the US job market is stalling out. Private sector job creation near ZERO, wage growth slowing, and labor force participation falling again. More workers are being forced to take on multiple part-time jobs to survive. This is desperation employment, not prosperity.
What this tells us. The engine of real US economic strength, the PRIVATE SECTOR, is essentially done. With that, and using history as a guide, this is exactly what we saw before EVERY major economic downturn in past cycles.
The US is already in a Manufacturing Recession… Confirmed.
Using their own #fake numbers… ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for months, this is contraction by their own numbers. By their own numbers again, new factory orders are plunging and order cancelations are at an historic high. The system is not just slowing, its crashing.
What this means. Factory order cancellations surging is a critical red flag. Companies are no longer confident in future demand.
Imports Slashed A Very Bad Omen.
By their own numbers. The fact that imports just got got halved is a HUGE signal. The US is importing less because domestic demand is collapsing, this is not just about tariffs. Consumers can’t afford discretionary goods. Retailers and wholesalers are slashing orders, WHY? They know a consumer contraction is hitting, and this is a sign of deep systemic weakness. Global trade impact. This will boomerang back through supply chains, worsening the manufacturing slowdown.
Dollar’s Purchasing Power IS Collapsing FASTER and real wages are declining.
The Middle class being squeezed from both sides.
The Full Picture. Job market flatlining, manufacturing in recession, imports crashing, accelerated dollar debasement, middle class collapse.
Lions… This is a SYSTEMIC FAILURE CYCLE now in motion.
How these dynamics work together in summary.
Slowing economy leads to a loss of confidence, this leads to demand falling, which leads to production slowing even faster, leading to more layoffs, leading to a deeper collapse.
GM
As you always say Greg, all of these have been hidden in plain sight.
Sounds pretty much spot on