LIONS! ITS WAR... SO HOLD OFF ON MY WEEKLY TRADE!
From Greg M
Lions…
As you know the US is now directly engaged in a new, and sustained Middle East kinetic war.
President Trump stated directly yesterday that “The US Will Use Overwhelming Lethal Force To Achieve OUR Objective.” Plans are in place for a sustained new US military bombing campaign.
With that, we should expect market volatility.
This is what appears on my website (below).
I AM SUGGESTING THAT YOU NOT TRADE THIS UNTIL WE GAIN MORE CLARITY AS TO HOW THE MARKET WILL REACT.
Peter Schiff
@PeterSchiff
The NASDAQ is down 12%. If this correction turns out to be a bear market, and the correlation where a 12% decline in the NASDAQ equates to a 24% decline in Bitcoin holds, when the NASDAQ is down 20%, Bitcoin will be about $65K.
But if the NASDAQ goes into a bear market, history shows that the decline will be much larger. Following the bursting of the Dot-com bubble, it fell almost 80%. During the 2008 GFC, it fell 55%, and during the COVID crash in 2020, it fell about 30%. The average of those three bear markets is a 55% decline. If this bear market bottoms with just a 40% decline, that would put Bitcoin at about $20K. However, my bet would be that a drop of that magnitude would accelerate Bitcoin's collapse to much lower levels.
On the other hand, the correlation between the NASDAQ and gold has been negative. Since the NASDAQ peaked on Dec. 16th, 2023, gold is up 13%, almost a perfect 1-to-1 correlation. So, if that correlation holds too, a 40% drop in the NASDAQ would put gold over $3,800. However, my guess is that if a bear market in stocks coincides with a significant decline in the dollar on foreign exchange markets, gold will rise much higher.
But even at $3,800 gold and $20K Bitcoin, in terms of gold, Bitcoin will be down over 85%. Given that such a divergence will likely end the pretense that Bitcoin is a store of value similar to gold, there will clearly be no justification for the U.S. government or any state government to keep any Bitcoin in a Strategic Reserve. There will also be no reason for ETF investors to keep holding their positions either. With all that selling, it will be impossible for $MSTR to sell enough Bitcoin to avoid bankruptcy.
So much for the Trumper not being a war-killing people president. Clearly taking orders from the Zionist!! MSM is saying $5trillion was wiped out in the past 3 weeks, But I say transfered not gone. Thats my 2 satoshi worth!