The NASDAQ is down 12%. If this correction turns out to be a bear market, and the correlation where a 12% decline in the NASDAQ equates to a 24% decline in Bitcoin holds, when the NASDAQ is down 20%, Bitcoin will be about $65K.
But if the NASDAQ goes into a bear market, history shows that the decline will be much larger. Following the bursting of the Dot-com bubble, it fell almost 80%. During the 2008 GFC, it fell 55%, and during the COVID crash in 2020, it fell about 30%. The average of those three bear markets is a 55% decline. If this bear market bottoms with just a 40% decline, that would put Bitcoin at about $20K. However, my bet would be that a drop of that magnitude would accelerate Bitcoin's collapse to much lower levels.
On the other hand, the correlation between the NASDAQ and gold has been negative. Since the NASDAQ peaked on Dec. 16th, 2023, gold is up 13%, almost a perfect 1-to-1 correlation. So, if that correlation holds too, a 40% drop in the NASDAQ would put gold over $3,800. However, my guess is that if a bear market in stocks coincides with a significant decline in the dollar on foreign exchange markets, gold will rise much higher.
But even at $3,800 gold and $20K Bitcoin, in terms of gold, Bitcoin will be down over 85%. Given that such a divergence will likely end the pretense that Bitcoin is a store of value similar to gold, there will clearly be no justification for the U.S. government or any state government to keep any Bitcoin in a Strategic Reserve. There will also be no reason for ETF investors to keep holding their positions either. With all that selling, it will be impossible for $MSTR to sell enough Bitcoin to avoid bankruptcy.
Great analysis unless this is a planned destruction so Bitcoin can be bought on the cheap before another major move higher. The central bankers always create the boom and bust cycles to simply transfer more wealth to them. Wipe out the common man then buy it up on the cheap. And of course they sell the lie of “market cycles” when it’s all manufactured via intention.
So much for the Trumper not being a war-killing people president. Clearly taking orders from the Zionist!! MSM is saying $5trillion was wiped out in the past 3 weeks, But I say transfered not gone. Thats my 2 satoshi worth!
(... psst. I was thinking if this war really takes off an unprincipled man could really make a killing on financial stocks - I mean a killing ;-) - count me in when Israel has their civil war.
Bonbs can't stack up for too long - must be used/exploded so they can make more... weapons were once made for war - now wars are manufactured for the globalist weapons manufacturers. "What we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning." [Werner Heisenberg]
Greg, thank you for the trade. Easy to read and easy to understand. Also, thank you for the stop loss suggestion. However, I will hold off on this trade until you give the word.
Buy what is unloved........silver. Buy from a seller who will buy it back from you. As per usual in trading the average person will want silver even more when I'm selling it.
I buy from Money Metals. Keep it in gun safe! Hopefully one day it will be worth something. I haven't really done that well in the crypto world, but working on buying XRP and XLM. Anything is better than nothing.
Robinhood kicked me out and gave all my money back saying my account had suspicious activity, there was nothing going on. I do not know what happen and can't get any help.
What platform should I use. I started using recently SOFI and I do not like it yet. You can buy stock but can't do puts and calls or put anytime of stop loss. Any recommendations, I am not an expert at this but I have made money in the stock market over time.
Not only expect the market have volatilely, U.S. citizens and the world are showing volatilely daily more and more, completely concerned what Trump is doing to our countries.
Ok, Vike, So what is President Trump trying to do? is protecting American domestic business so terribly awful? Do you not believe that all tariffs in the world should be equal? All equal or all banished? I live in America, and I like to see our country thrive. I especially like to see our middle class grow in power and wealth. Don't you?
If you are not American, I understand your concern. What am I missing Vike? I love Ann Rand's writings. However, I am not channelling Ann Rand right now. I am asking you straight up. Are you an American first always person, like myself, or a worldist sucking the teet of the undemocrat party? Obey The Pug1
I can assure you I am an American. I believe what Trump is attempting to do is bring manufacturing back to this country. There are NO tariffs on products made in this country. Plus manufacturing usually provides higher paying jobs, which would have to increase dramatically(jobs) if manufacturing returned in a big way.
As far as this country, it has offered me a life style not available in other countries with my background! With no education, experience, or special skills I was able to retire at 47 ahead of all my cousins who are college educated. The thing that is needed is motivation and the will to work plus the tenaciousness to stay after it when it doesn't go well.
Today I see a country that has taken a socialist bent in it's school curriculum which has created a entitlement mind set while destroying any type of work regimen.
Perhaps you have me confused with someone else as I have been neutral on tariffs. I'm not one the "tariffs are bad" crowd that have no idea how it will all work out. However, unlike the majority on the board, I attempt to seek out the opinion of more than one. This from Gordon T Long offers both economic theory and the record of history concerning tariffs. BTW Gordon T Long researches what he presents instead adopting some MSM garbage.
OBSERVATIONS: TARIFFS v EXCHANGE RATES v FREE TRADE
The market analysts and so-called economists panicking over President Donald Trump’s tariffs must be at least somewhat relieved that he’s agreed to pause the ones he wants to impose on Mexico and Canada. But they shouldn’t have been worried in the first place, because their fears are misplaced.
Trump understands the harsh reality of the situation: other nations have exploited the U.S. for decades, and it’s long past time America fought back. In fact, Trump’s actions are likely to benefit Americans greatly.
TARIFFS DON’T MEAN INFLATION – RATHER AN EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE
In the first place, the idea that tariffs are always and everywhere passed on to consumers is a fallacy, by both economic theory and the record of history. Factors such as changes in exchange rates mean that foreign producers typically end up paying some (or most) of a tariff.
We forget that during America’s Golden Age, the government essentially funded itself entirely with tariffs; the income tax didn’t even exist. Instead of tariffs wrecking untold economic calamity, they coincided with our fastest sustained levels of growth — a time that built America’s middle class not the global elite & their corporations.
But today, both our friends and foes alike abuse America in international trade and undermine her potential to thrive. For example, Mexico has been working with China to circumvent tariffs and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) on China and abuse provisions of the trade deal between Mexico and Canada (USMC). That makes it impossible for American companies and American workers to compete.
Slapping a tariff on both Mexico and China penalizes this kind of underhanded dealing and puts American exporters back on a more level playing field. When asked about tariffs on the European Union, Trump said he’ll use the same playbook, and rightfully so.
VALUE ADDED TAX (VAT) v TARIFFS
Many European nations use schemes like value added taxes (VATs) to impose implicit tariffs on American exports. Furthermore, countries like Germany and Japan still have tariffs that were put in place after World War II to protect industries being rebuilt following the conflict. The status quo has completely changed, and there’s no reason for these nations to continue penalizing American farmers and factory workers. We finally have a president who recognizes these realities and who is implementing a carrot-and-stick approach to reshuffle the international paradigm in America’s favor.
Trump is simultaneously making it more expensive to produce abroad and hire foreigners, while making it less expensive to produce domestically and hire Americans through his plans for:
Deregulation & Government Downsizing
Lower Marginal Tax Rates, and
Abundant Energy
… which will all contribute to lower costs of production in the U.S. while tariffs will increase costs on overseas production. How does this play out?
THE TRUMP CARD
Consider Canada, whose leaders are ranting about Trump standing up for Americans. If Canada agrees to eliminate its own tariffs and NTBs, then American exporters, like dairy farmers, will be more competitive and will sell more product in Canada. That means doing more business and employing more Americans.
If Canada remains obstinate and insists on a trade war, then Canadian products will be less competitive, opening the door for American producers, like foresters, to expand production and sell more domestically while employing more Americans. Trump is positioning the American worker to come out on top either way.
As economist Art Laffer has noted, there are no winners in trade wars, but the losers can face drastically different losses. Nearly all Canadian exports go to the U.S., but only a small fraction of American exports go to Canada. If international trade between the two slows dramatically, it’ll lead to a steep recession in Canada but will be more like a speed bump for the U.S. In short, Trump holds all the cards. And he knows it!
The Gordon T Long article sounds more in tune with what Trump is attempting to achieve and makes sense to me. After all I was an American businessman for over 40 years!
My advice to all is do your own research, one mans opinion could be wrong!
As far as myself I have no siblings, divorced in 1998, no family so all I have is God and country, the USofA!
Thankfully God is allowing me to see this play out as I have been warning about what is to soon take place since the 1990s. That's the best part as those in their 20s and 30s will have to live out their remaining years in a totalitarian shit hole long after I'm dead! The opportunities, rights and freedoms will be but a memory of things past!
World War III began a long time ago. Greg talks about it as the "silent war" and he's absolutely right. Do your own research and you can start with "Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars" that discusses the actions/objectives of what is happening right now. This document was discovered in 1986 and immediately labeled a "conspiracy theory" by the system, but pretty much all the actions discussed have come to pass.
BTW What is the tariff scam? Is there any tariffs on a vehicle made in this country? But if the vehicle is made in part Canada or Mexico there is a 25% tariff?
Since there is a 25% tariff on importing vehicles what happens if they are ALL made HERE?
Yes, Vike, President Trump intends to bring manufacturing back to the good old USA. America is self-sufficient now . The United States of America does not need anything from the Canucks or from Mexico, or from the world. America can supply everything American citizens need, and with manufacturing coming back we will build a new middle class in USA.
And neither does it need any foreigners to produce masses and masses of chemtrails. If chemtrailing continues apace who will the customers be for this restored manufacturing
I see you are caught in this trap...The job of the mainstream media today is to make you think that the views of 10% of the country are actually the views of 90% of the country.
or
"The degree to which a man substitutes the judgment of others for his own, failing to look at reality directly, is the degree to which his mental processes are alienated from reality."
Peter Schiff
@PeterSchiff
The NASDAQ is down 12%. If this correction turns out to be a bear market, and the correlation where a 12% decline in the NASDAQ equates to a 24% decline in Bitcoin holds, when the NASDAQ is down 20%, Bitcoin will be about $65K.
But if the NASDAQ goes into a bear market, history shows that the decline will be much larger. Following the bursting of the Dot-com bubble, it fell almost 80%. During the 2008 GFC, it fell 55%, and during the COVID crash in 2020, it fell about 30%. The average of those three bear markets is a 55% decline. If this bear market bottoms with just a 40% decline, that would put Bitcoin at about $20K. However, my bet would be that a drop of that magnitude would accelerate Bitcoin's collapse to much lower levels.
On the other hand, the correlation between the NASDAQ and gold has been negative. Since the NASDAQ peaked on Dec. 16th, 2023, gold is up 13%, almost a perfect 1-to-1 correlation. So, if that correlation holds too, a 40% drop in the NASDAQ would put gold over $3,800. However, my guess is that if a bear market in stocks coincides with a significant decline in the dollar on foreign exchange markets, gold will rise much higher.
But even at $3,800 gold and $20K Bitcoin, in terms of gold, Bitcoin will be down over 85%. Given that such a divergence will likely end the pretense that Bitcoin is a store of value similar to gold, there will clearly be no justification for the U.S. government or any state government to keep any Bitcoin in a Strategic Reserve. There will also be no reason for ETF investors to keep holding their positions either. With all that selling, it will be impossible for $MSTR to sell enough Bitcoin to avoid bankruptcy.
Peter is a very good man!
Looks like my GLD options will pan out!
Great analysis unless this is a planned destruction so Bitcoin can be bought on the cheap before another major move higher. The central bankers always create the boom and bust cycles to simply transfer more wealth to them. Wipe out the common man then buy it up on the cheap. And of course they sell the lie of “market cycles” when it’s all manufactured via intention.
So much for the Trumper not being a war-killing people president. Clearly taking orders from the Zionist!! MSM is saying $5trillion was wiped out in the past 3 weeks, But I say transfered not gone. Thats my 2 satoshi worth!
I’m staying in GLD
The banks love you... by helping them keep the ETF/ fiat derivative Ponzi going.
The ETF is actually backed by gold and held in a vault in Philadelphia. Sure hope it’s not a Ponzi scheme. I’m making tons of money.
Good move!
(... psst. I was thinking if this war really takes off an unprincipled man could really make a killing on financial stocks - I mean a killing ;-) - count me in when Israel has their civil war.
By Lockheed Martin
Bonbs can't stack up for too long - must be used/exploded so they can make more... weapons were once made for war - now wars are manufactured for the globalist weapons manufacturers. "What we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning." [Werner Heisenberg]
Greg, thank you for the trade. Easy to read and easy to understand. Also, thank you for the stop loss suggestion. However, I will hold off on this trade until you give the word.
I'm just going to hold my physical silver. There will be a pullback. I will buy more.
Been buying for 4 years and holding just waiting..
Buy what is unloved........silver. Buy from a seller who will buy it back from you. As per usual in trading the average person will want silver even more when I'm selling it.
I buy from Money Metals. Keep it in gun safe! Hopefully one day it will be worth something. I haven't really done that well in the crypto world, but working on buying XRP and XLM. Anything is better than nothing.
This kind of quick, pertinent info is why I subscribe and follow... Thanks again Greg.
Robinhood kicked me out and gave all my money back saying my account had suspicious activity, there was nothing going on. I do not know what happen and can't get any help.
What platform should I use. I started using recently SOFI and I do not like it yet. You can buy stock but can't do puts and calls or put anytime of stop loss. Any recommendations, I am not an expert at this but I have made money in the stock market over time.
How about Gold? The price of stocks in over inflated anyway.
I wish silver would explode as I hold physical ..
Some very important people must have donated to Trump's campaign.
Can someone PLEASE explain what our OBJECTIVES are! Bring our soldiers home and let the middle east fight it out amongst themselves.
Not only expect the market have volatilely, U.S. citizens and the world are showing volatilely daily more and more, completely concerned what Trump is doing to our countries.
Ok, Vike, So what is President Trump trying to do? is protecting American domestic business so terribly awful? Do you not believe that all tariffs in the world should be equal? All equal or all banished? I live in America, and I like to see our country thrive. I especially like to see our middle class grow in power and wealth. Don't you?
If you are not American, I understand your concern. What am I missing Vike? I love Ann Rand's writings. However, I am not channelling Ann Rand right now. I am asking you straight up. Are you an American first always person, like myself, or a worldist sucking the teet of the undemocrat party? Obey The Pug1
I can assure you I am an American. I believe what Trump is attempting to do is bring manufacturing back to this country. There are NO tariffs on products made in this country. Plus manufacturing usually provides higher paying jobs, which would have to increase dramatically(jobs) if manufacturing returned in a big way.
As far as this country, it has offered me a life style not available in other countries with my background! With no education, experience, or special skills I was able to retire at 47 ahead of all my cousins who are college educated. The thing that is needed is motivation and the will to work plus the tenaciousness to stay after it when it doesn't go well.
Today I see a country that has taken a socialist bent in it's school curriculum which has created a entitlement mind set while destroying any type of work regimen.
Perhaps you have me confused with someone else as I have been neutral on tariffs. I'm not one the "tariffs are bad" crowd that have no idea how it will all work out. However, unlike the majority on the board, I attempt to seek out the opinion of more than one. This from Gordon T Long offers both economic theory and the record of history concerning tariffs. BTW Gordon T Long researches what he presents instead adopting some MSM garbage.
OBSERVATIONS: TARIFFS v EXCHANGE RATES v FREE TRADE
The market analysts and so-called economists panicking over President Donald Trump’s tariffs must be at least somewhat relieved that he’s agreed to pause the ones he wants to impose on Mexico and Canada. But they shouldn’t have been worried in the first place, because their fears are misplaced.
Trump understands the harsh reality of the situation: other nations have exploited the U.S. for decades, and it’s long past time America fought back. In fact, Trump’s actions are likely to benefit Americans greatly.
TARIFFS DON’T MEAN INFLATION – RATHER AN EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE
In the first place, the idea that tariffs are always and everywhere passed on to consumers is a fallacy, by both economic theory and the record of history. Factors such as changes in exchange rates mean that foreign producers typically end up paying some (or most) of a tariff.
We forget that during America’s Golden Age, the government essentially funded itself entirely with tariffs; the income tax didn’t even exist. Instead of tariffs wrecking untold economic calamity, they coincided with our fastest sustained levels of growth — a time that built America’s middle class not the global elite & their corporations.
But today, both our friends and foes alike abuse America in international trade and undermine her potential to thrive. For example, Mexico has been working with China to circumvent tariffs and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) on China and abuse provisions of the trade deal between Mexico and Canada (USMC). That makes it impossible for American companies and American workers to compete.
Slapping a tariff on both Mexico and China penalizes this kind of underhanded dealing and puts American exporters back on a more level playing field. When asked about tariffs on the European Union, Trump said he’ll use the same playbook, and rightfully so.
VALUE ADDED TAX (VAT) v TARIFFS
Many European nations use schemes like value added taxes (VATs) to impose implicit tariffs on American exports. Furthermore, countries like Germany and Japan still have tariffs that were put in place after World War II to protect industries being rebuilt following the conflict. The status quo has completely changed, and there’s no reason for these nations to continue penalizing American farmers and factory workers. We finally have a president who recognizes these realities and who is implementing a carrot-and-stick approach to reshuffle the international paradigm in America’s favor.
Trump is simultaneously making it more expensive to produce abroad and hire foreigners, while making it less expensive to produce domestically and hire Americans through his plans for:
Deregulation & Government Downsizing
Lower Marginal Tax Rates, and
Abundant Energy
… which will all contribute to lower costs of production in the U.S. while tariffs will increase costs on overseas production. How does this play out?
THE TRUMP CARD
Consider Canada, whose leaders are ranting about Trump standing up for Americans. If Canada agrees to eliminate its own tariffs and NTBs, then American exporters, like dairy farmers, will be more competitive and will sell more product in Canada. That means doing more business and employing more Americans.
If Canada remains obstinate and insists on a trade war, then Canadian products will be less competitive, opening the door for American producers, like foresters, to expand production and sell more domestically while employing more Americans. Trump is positioning the American worker to come out on top either way.
As economist Art Laffer has noted, there are no winners in trade wars, but the losers can face drastically different losses. Nearly all Canadian exports go to the U.S., but only a small fraction of American exports go to Canada. If international trade between the two slows dramatically, it’ll lead to a steep recession in Canada but will be more like a speed bump for the U.S. In short, Trump holds all the cards. And he knows it!
The Gordon T Long article sounds more in tune with what Trump is attempting to achieve and makes sense to me. After all I was an American businessman for over 40 years!
My advice to all is do your own research, one mans opinion could be wrong!
As far as myself I have no siblings, divorced in 1998, no family so all I have is God and country, the USofA!
Thankfully God is allowing me to see this play out as I have been warning about what is to soon take place since the 1990s. That's the best part as those in their 20s and 30s will have to live out their remaining years in a totalitarian shit hole long after I'm dead! The opportunities, rights and freedoms will be but a memory of things past!
World War III began a long time ago. Greg talks about it as the "silent war" and he's absolutely right. Do your own research and you can start with "Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars" that discusses the actions/objectives of what is happening right now. This document was discovered in 1986 and immediately labeled a "conspiracy theory" by the system, but pretty much all the actions discussed have come to pass.
https://archive.org/details/silent-weapons-for-quiet-wars-original-document-copy/mode/2up
Why are the americans at war again ? I really do not get it ! It has to do with Is-ra-el , but come on !
The MIC needs to be feed
BTW What is the tariff scam? Is there any tariffs on a vehicle made in this country? But if the vehicle is made in part Canada or Mexico there is a 25% tariff?
Since there is a 25% tariff on importing vehicles what happens if they are ALL made HERE?
Can you guess what Trump is attempting to do?
Yes, Vike, President Trump intends to bring manufacturing back to the good old USA. America is self-sufficient now . The United States of America does not need anything from the Canucks or from Mexico, or from the world. America can supply everything American citizens need, and with manufacturing coming back we will build a new middle class in USA.
And neither does it need any foreigners to produce masses and masses of chemtrails. If chemtrailing continues apace who will the customers be for this restored manufacturing
I see you are caught in this trap...The job of the mainstream media today is to make you think that the views of 10% of the country are actually the views of 90% of the country.
or
"The degree to which a man substitutes the judgment of others for his own, failing to look at reality directly, is the degree to which his mental processes are alienated from reality."
Ayn Rand