LIVE! New "Mystery Virus." SHockER! US GDP Revised HIGHER! Fed. "Beige Book" Conundrum... Mannarino
From Greg M
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People just want to keep drinking the kool-aid because they think they can't do anything to change their lives as impending doom starts seeping in. The more truth reveals itself, the deeper people go in their own fantasy to avoid the "doom". We are here now. The truth is revealing itself, and people are ignoring it more than they ever have. If people actually listened to the truth, instead of drinking the kool-aid, they could profit from it...most people don't realize this or don't want to realize this because it brings the "doom" into their life...something they want to avoid to be a productive member of society. The irony is that there is no more productivity in society when people avoid reality for fantasy, and now we have reached a moment in time where the American Dream is nearly over.
The "kool-aid" in this instance, is buying the markets because easy money has always found its way back in, but the glass became empty the minute the Central Banks drank it all up in 2020. Market sentiment shifted the moment the Ten Year Yield and Interest Rates fell below 1%. The side effect of this was the largest rise in rate hikes in a short period of time, followed by the largest rise in the Ten Year Yield in a short period of time...since the late 1970's. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates next year, the market will implode. If the Federal Reserve raises rates, the implosion will find its way into the markets anyway. The Federal Reserve only has one choice to keep everything "neat and tidy", and this is to keep rates paused for years. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates here, with bond yields inverted and barely below the FED Funds Rate, then the Federal Reserve will not have enough time to act upon the markets in free fall. They must bring yields down to at least 2.5% before they even consider rate cuts, and the debt market is still leaking like Chernobyl, despite the Federal Reserve trying to clean it up right now.
The Market can see what the Soviet Union refused to see, and that is smart money putting their cash in saftey nets, like precious metals and CD's in order to wait out the impact of reactor four exploding. Everyone is just hoping that the Central Banks will keep having the markets back, just as the Soviets refused to see the immediate impact of Chernobyl.
Keep drinking the Kool-Aid, i'm shorting with Michael Burry here.
If we own US treasuries, we don't need to worry about anything. Period. $20 invested in US treasuries in 1913 when the FED was created would be worth 94000 today using a periodic rate calculator at 8%. And zero risk and no worries.
https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/financial/compound-interest-calculator-periodic.php
$20 invested in gold in 1913 is worth $2000 today. Silver is so pathetic that there is no point talking about it. It's basically worthless in long run.
94000 vs 2000 ! That's the power of US treasuries. 'nuf said ..