MARKETS A LOOK AHEAD: OPPORTUNITY IS EVERYWHERE! TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF IT. Mannarino
From Greg M
Lions And Friends.
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It's amazing how this market has become so attached to easy money, that people disregard what has happened every time in the past. I do agree that the Federal Reserve will come back in and buy all of it again, but only after "the dust settles". People trading this market have completely forgotten what happens to the yield curve if the Federal Reserve cuts rates. When bond yields start rising for no reason, and the Ten Year Yield starts breaking above 5%, everybody will be freaking out...just put this as a reminder that you shouldn't be freaking out. This is normal and it's called yield curve un-inversion. The only thing you should be worrying about is where to buy the market. This is only true if the Federal Reserve actually does cut rates. In my opinion, there is a 75% chance they won't cut rates this year, 25% they will cut rates. This is because the yield curve is a mess. Trying to manage bond yields back above the FED Funds Rate, without completely losing control of the entire yield curve is going to be a challenge. I can say with 100% conviction that they will keep rates paused next FOMC. If they do cut rates this year, I would hope that they do un-invert the yield curve...if they don't it would cause an unprecedented monetary policy doom loop of rising rates that could last a decade (1966 was the last time they cut rates with inverted yields). This would be the ONLY indicator that would price in a recession that every one has been anticipating. If it goes down this path, the market will struggle until the talking heads actually announced a recession is here, then the market will have bottomed, just like (2002, 2008, 2020). The only disconnection between the stock market and the real economy is the disconnection that they force us to believe. But, there are periods of time where they put their foot off the gas and slow down, before going much faster. In my opinion, we are close to that tipping point.
The casino is going to collapse. This entire country is going to collapse.