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Mathieu Belanger-Camden's avatar

📈 DAILY MARKET BREAKDOWN — Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Quick, clean summary of your core ETF + crypto assets. Let’s hit the charts.

🟦 SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

📊 Bias: Short-Term Overbought — Cautiously Bearish

🔺 Price: Riding the upper Bollinger Band = extended

📈 RSI: Approaching/above 70 → overbought

📉 Volume: Weak on rally → potential bull trap

📊 MACD: Still positive but peaking

🎯 Takeaway: Classic setup for a fade or pullback

💡 Option Trade Ideas:

Buy SPY Jun 21st $575 Puts (OTM, anticipating pullback)

Bear Put Spread: Buy $580 / Sell $570 → Defined-risk short setup

🛢 USO (United States Oil Fund)

📈 Bias: Early Bullish Reversal Forming

📈 MACD: Fresh bullish crossover

📈 RSI: Rising from lows

📉 Volume: Not strong yet, but improving structure

🧠 Target: Gap-fill potential to $72–74 if trend continues

💡 Option Trade Ideas:

Buy USO Jun 21st $70 Calls → Playing the early reversal

Call Debit Spread: Buy $68 / Sell $72 → Cheaper entry with defined upside

🪙 GLD (Gold ETF)

🔁 Bias: Long-Term Bullish — Short-Term Cooling

📉 MACD: Curling down = near-term weakness

📉 RSI: Softening = digestion phase

📏 Support: Holding 50-day MA — still in macro uptrend

🧠 Gameplan: Wait for cooling to finish, then re-enter

💡 Option Trade Ideas:

Sell Puts → Premium on weakness (if you're bullish long-term)

Buy Aug 16th $300/$320 Call Spread → Re-enter longer trend at discount

₿ Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

📈 Bias: Bullish Continuation

📊 Structure: Strong breakout volume + higher lows = robust uptrend

🧠 Target: $110K test highly probable if current trend holds

Ideal for trend-followers. Look for any intraday consolidation for adding exposure.

✖️ XRP (Ripple)

📊 Bias: Bullish Recovery — Consolidation Phase

📈 MACD: Curling up

📈 RSI: Trending higher but still early

📏 Pattern: Compression breakout forming

🧠 Gameplan: Watch for volume + breakout of range

📊 Summary Table:

Asset Bias Setup Trade Idea

SPY 🟥 Cautiously Bearish (Short-Term) Overbought, fading volume Buy Jun 21 $575 Put OR Bear Put Spread ($580/$570)

USO 🟩 Early Bullish Reversal MACD/RSI turning up Buy Jun 21 $70 Call OR Debit Spread ($68/$72)

GLD 🟨 Bullish (LT) / Pullback (ST) Holding 50MA, short-term cool Sell Puts OR Buy Aug 16 $300/$320 Call Spread

BTC 🟩 Bullish Continuation Breakout + volume Ride toward $110K

XRP 🟨 Bullish Consolidation Breakout likely Wait for range breakout with volume

📌 Let me know if you want:

Greeks & IV levels

Backtests

Live charts with trendlines / S/R

Risk:Reward calculators for any spread idea.

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Albert Herdoiza's avatar

Great insights Greg. Appreciate you sharing your knowledge in these particular areas. Not only interesting to follow, but you are batting a 1000!

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