"PREPARE FOR RECORD BREAKING OIL SHOCK!" Says The International Energy Agency... Mannarino
From Greg M
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I like to make predictions. In two versions: If a chart tells me, for example, USD or oil will rise sharply (or fall, doesn't matter), I consider what will happen in the real world that matches it. Or I see something special is going to happen in the real world, then I consider how will prices react to that.
Now the Hang Seng chart is telling me there's going to be another big down move soon. The Hang Seng is going to fall by 50%. So what will happen in the real world then? There will probably be sanctions against China as well. Or at least supply chains will be massively disrupted for other reasons. Then the U.S. market could stay strong and China could still fall. Look at Russian stocks.
I was thinking about this a few days ago, and already the news is coming in, preparing us for this. For example:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-warn-xi-us-retaliation-measures-over-russia-support-tense-friday-morning-call
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/maersk-warns-chinas-covid-lockdowns-disrupt-supply-chains
https://www.businessinsider.de/politik/welt/us-geheimdienstkoordinatorin-warnt-laut-nato-briefing-china-bietet-russland-seit-beginn-des-ukraine-kriegs-militaerische-hilfe-an/?utm_campaign=linkedin&utm_medium=onsite_button&utm_source=social
That means: we should not buy Chinese stocks. It also means: Some products are no longer supplied from China, and some goods are no longer supplied to China. Some products can no longer be produced because the parts from China are missing. The prices for these products are rising extremely. The question now is, which products are these? All of them, which are durable and which we can easily lay, are now a very good investment. Either we buy them now much cheaper, because we will need them later anyway, or we store them and sell them later more expensive. Remember, it's always about percentages. If I can make 20% or 50% with it, that's no different than making 20% or 50% with a stock.
It also helps to think like the enemy. What does he want and what would we do in his place if we wanted to create that. The middle class should be destroyed and everything should become more expensive. So I would be stupid not to play my China card. I want to hit Europe particularly hard, especially Germany. Problems in the auto industry are particularly bad for Germany. 50% of all sales go to the Asian market. So I have to attack that. So sanctions, similar to Russia would be ideal. Prices for new cars would explode and there would be mass layoffs. Perfect. But imports from China to Germany are also interesting: the most important import goods are computer technology, as well as electrical and optical products, motor vehicles and parts, machinery and chemical products.
Moreover, if I want to hit Germany especially hard, the euro has to rise against the USD. That would be the death of the German export industry. So that is exactly what will happen. I therefore claim, soon the Euro will double. For that to happen, it would help if the ECB raises interest rates soon, so that will happen. The reasoning is, prices should rise less as a result, the truth is, just the opposite will happen. With the mass unemployment that will follow, private home loans will also default and house prices will crash, first and foremost the prices of vacation homes. Then I can buy if I want to. Now I don't. The same goes for boats and luxury cars and much more.
So most recently, for example, I bought Russian vodka. As a small investment. My risk in doing so is practically zero. As of now, I'm starting to buy things that are guaranteed to get more expensive with the coming "China crisis". I have already bought a motorcycle. I can ride it or sell it expensively at some point. Or both.
Conclusion: The best investments are currently goods that are durable, that we will need later anyway and that will be much more expensive later than today. This can be anything. Gasoline, noodles, clothes, machines, etc. etc. The decisive factor is not the absolute price, the decisive factor is the rising price in percentage.
Take action and have a nice weekend.
Every YouTuber on the planet has been and will forever keep trumpeting how bad the economy is and how horribly people are suffering. This is a Forever thing. This year, Next year, years after that, next century, after the next ice age.. Forever.
In the mean time, every house will be sold out, stock market will go above mount Everest to the moon and beyond, every good restaurant, every good club, Walmart, Target , all will remain full as ever, USA household wealth will keep increasing and so on
People will sprawl on their couch next to the fire place after 10 course meals, pour their favorite wine, turn on internet and read 'how bad the economy is and how everybody else is suffering'. They will watch the falling snow outside, look at the flames in the fireplace, feel the warmth and coziness, curse the FED, pull over the blanket, cuddle their cat or wife or a sugar-baby and close their eyes.
Repeat the next day. Who the f*ck wants to read that others are doing way better than them ? Raise your tail. No smart YouTuber will ever tell you that others are doing better than you loser. If they do they will shoot themselves in the foot and no one will hear them