The Fiat System Collapse. THE BOND MARKET WILL BREAK. (Full-Breakdown). Mannarino

From Greg M

Lions…

This new war will likely NOT stay contained. This is not a border conflict. It’s the front end of a multi-theater confrontation.

Let’s break this ALL down.

This is not just geopolitical. This is prophetic, historical, and spiritual. Iran and Israel represent two opposing spiritual and ideological kingdoms, and those forces do not compromise. This war carries generational weight, and men will die to preserve what they believe is divine right.

Too Many Stakeholders with Hidden Hands.

The US is watching and waiting, but already involved through weapons, intelligence, and warships. (As you read this, the US is sending a LARGE amount of military assets into the region as a show of support for Israel).

Russia is quietly moving pieces as well, as it maintains deep ties with Iran. China, on the other hand, is calculating opportunity, in oil, currency, and global leverage. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, all walking tightropes, all watching for the moment to either support or strike.

This is a war of dominos, and a single wrong move pulls half the planet in.

The Strait of Hormuz. If Iran truly pushes back and closes the Strait of Hormuz…
World oil supply is hit overnight. Prices skyrocket. Military responses ignite.
That move alone could drag multiple nations into a hot war.

ON THE DOLLAR AND THE MARKETS.

If this Middle East conflict escalates beyond containment, expect to see The dollar will initially spike as a “safe haven.” Capital will flee risky markets and rush into USD-denominated assets (bonds, T-bills). But once energy prices spike and the conflict threatens global trade routes (Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, Gulf of Oman),
the dollar’s purchasing power will be exposed. If Iran forces oil settlements in yuan or gold, or a broader de-dollarization move accelerates, global trust in the dollar could collapse faster than it did in 2008.

Short term. Dollar up. Mid-to-long term: Dollar trust crisis.

STOCK MARKETS… EXTREME VOLATILITY, THEN A WAVE OF SELLOFFS. Major indexes like S&P 500 could experience SEVERE drops.

OIL & ENERGY… VIOLENT SPIKES. If Iran moves to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz (which carries 20% of the world’s oil supply), expect oil to surge well past $120–$150/barrel within days. Energy stocks will spike, the effect will be consumer energy shock, triggering inflation panic.

GOLD & SILVER… TRUE SAFE HAVEN FLIGHT. Gold will move rapidly through resistance and Silver, IMO, will lead the way. This is where the wealth transfer begins for those holding real assets.

DEBT MARKET MELTDOWN…

BONDS… CHAOS IN YIELDS. Treasury yields may drop short-term as capital seeks shelter, and I fully expect that this would happen initially, But if energy and inflation spiral, which they will in this situation, bond yields will spike out of fear and an uncontrolled selloff would ensue. The bond market would break…

FULL Credit Market Paralysis.

Bond yields are used to price everything, from mortgages and business loans to derivatives and sovereign swaps. A sudden spike causes valuation chaos, making lenders refuse to lend. Corporate credit seizes up, companies can’t roll over debt, buy back shares, or make payroll. This is a credit freeze.

Liquidity Drain + Margin Calls. Asset managers and banks holding leveraged bond positions face margin calls. Forced selling spreads into stocks, real estate, and commodities. Massive liquidity drain begins.

Systemwide Lockup. Interbank lending collapses (like in 2008). Short-term funding markets like repo and commercial paper fail to function. Even solvent institutions can’t access capital so they begin failing as well.

Central Banks (Last Resort). The Fed, ECB, and others will slash rates instantly (back to zero or negative). Buy everything, QE on steroids, not just bonds but stocks, corporate debt, maybe even housing. Freeze markets. Halt trading.

Confidence Death Spiral... Expect a flight to hard assets. Gold, land, commodities, even barter.

The Fiat System Collapse. This is hyperinflationary in the end, because the only way to “fix” the problem is to print more debt to solve a debt crisis.

GM