Lions and friends…
As we expected and outlined in my MARKETS A LOOK AHEAD video yesterday, after Donald Trumps comments over the weekend regarding a blank check for funding Israel’s war, the DXY has dropped and stocks are higher- no surprise here however… The current selloff in the bond market remains a big problem. But! we know where the line in the sand is, and that is 5% on the 10yr. IF they can manage to keep the 10yr below 5%, (and the dollar from exploding higher), which will also mean expanding war, the market will go higher. With that, no matter what they do, it will not last.
BE SURE TO WATCH MY NEWEST VIDEO BELOW, I PUT ALL THIS TOGETHER FOR YOU THERE.
Keep in mind that when I talk about the war(s), and Presidential candidates, I am ONLY looking at this from the perspective as to what the market wants. Its MY JOB to keep all of you ahead of the curve, and with that, I WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!
GM
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Fed Futures are 0% chance for a hike, 97% for a pause, and 3% for a cut.
Looks like the Federal Funds Rate will be topping out here. If the market has 0% expectation of another hike the Fed will NOT hike. They also follow expectations.
I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that 5% on the 10 year will be the top of rates, and that line in the sand will hold. Inflation isn’t the #1 concern anymore and the Fed can now justify any amount of bond purchases since there is war.
We all appreciate your steadfast diligence keeping us informed and focused. You nailed it again. Thanks Greg!