40 Comments
Aug 29, 2023Liked by Gregory Mannarino

If it keeps falling rapidly, it could signal something bad is about to happen. The last time the MMRI completely collapsed was right before the pandemic crash.

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author

Interesting observation!

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Aug 29, 2023·edited Aug 29, 2023

Huh? It does this every couple of weeks.

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Aug 29, 2023·edited Aug 29, 2023

Smoke and mirrors, In November 2018 the MMRI reached its peak of 195.26% and fell into the beginning of March of 2020, dipping just below 20%. It wasn't the longer term decline in the MMRI that makes the observation appealing. It's the areas where the MMRI falls at a very rapid pace, and those areas were right before the pandemic became a crisis, in 2020. The pace at which its falling today is just a drop in the bucket compared to then, but it should be something we keep our eyes on. Mannarino points out that it's not the direction at which bond yields go but the pace at which they reach their destination. A rapidly falling 10 year yield could have the same negative consequences as a rapidly rising 10 year yield...based from this observation.

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author

I see that you have certainly done your homework with this. Would you be interested in putting together this information which I can publish? People should hear this. I will of course credit you for the data/info. email me at GregoryMannarino@hotmail.com

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Aug 29, 2023Liked by Gregory Mannarino

Feel free to use this information. Just helping out the community here so we can observe every angle of the situation as best we can.

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Aug 29, 2023·edited Aug 29, 2023

In the previous comment I pointed out that what is happening right now is just a "drop in the bucket" compared to many other times the MMRI has fallen rapidly in a day or several days. Take November 10th of last year as an example. That was the largest drop in a single day of all 2022 for the MMRI. The market kept going up, however, during that time the bad economic news kept flowing rapidly. Shortly after, mass layoff's from corporations, and the regional banks started collapsing (Silicon Valley). The only thing that "saved the market" was "Nick The Pig" who stopped the MMRI from going above 300 in October (one month before the large drop in the MMRI)....and "Nick The Pig" said that the FED was going to pause/pivot. Everyone and their mother bought the market.

But this is not the point. The point is the pace at which it falls in just a day or two...it's the pace (or velocity) at which it falls over a long period of time. It seems to be more impactful "after" a rapid drop, then a large spike....resulting in not just Black Monday of 1987 but also the Flash Crash of 2010. It's the velocity of which it travels in a certain direction, only to be pulled in the opposite direction suddenly. I also said "keep your eyes on it", as right now it does not seem alarming but with the economic news factoring into the pace at which the MMRI is moving (in both directions) is setting off the first alarm. There is no reason why the market should be moving higher based off of bad economic news, and this is what makes this observation critically profound.

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Next time I'll screenshot it whenever it drops rapidly like this and Greg makes a big deal out of it. Every freaking two weeks to a month the same crap.

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It wasn't useful to me.

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I didn't say that. I said it drops rapidly every two weeks to a month. This is nothing different from two weeks ago . Same thing. Pay attention every two weeks and you'll see this is nothing new. And each time Greg points it out as if it's something new which it isn't.

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The point being is that a rapid move in the MMRI doesn't necessarily mean that there will be a collapse in the market. The stock market is a derivate of the debt market, as explained a thousand times on this channel. What a rapid change of pace in the MMRI is telling us, is that bad economic news is going to get worse, and bond are theoretically "side betting" the direction at which the stock market (the derivative) will move. When you see a rapid pull from either side in the MMRI, it creates volatility, just as the VIX does. We have seen countless times where the VIX rises but the stock market is either flat, up, or down...and vice versa. This is because VIX is a derivative of the options market via side betting. The same rule applies for the MMRI...it moves in a fast pace either direction because bonds are side betting some drastic change in the economic outlook. IT DOESN'T ALWAYS cause the market to fall. It is a red flag (warning signal) that keeps us aware that the market may struggle because there will most likely be an economic event that impacts the market negatively. More times than not, this is true.

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I understand your point. My point is this is nothing new. It's been happening periodically for the past year, every couple of weeks sometimes. I agree. I think we are screwed. My point is the move in the MMRI and the 10 year is not unusual in the past year. It rapidly loses points and comes back up. I can pull up Greg's headlines for the past year to remind you.

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Isn't the MMRI just a number such as an index and not in units of percent? It changes over any particular time by some percent, so why put % after the MMRI itself?

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The MMRI factors a number with a percentage, and the percentage becomes dominant. This is how it is viewed on trading view.

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Okay, thanks.

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Thats dope thank you for the additional insight

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Another observation dates back to Black Monday. Prior to Black Monday, the MMRI fell at its fastest pace in history before finding a bottom, and once the MMRI bounced, the stock market suffered the worst drop in a single day recorded in history.

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You are right. The FED is not done taking money away from the people! Oh, I am shocked!

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SHOW NO FEAR AT THE GATES OF HELL...!

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Silver is in rally mode! Gold is also catching a bid.

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President-Elect Zio // Aug 24

Agree. Me think one more downmove in BTC (maybe @ 24,000) is possible. BUT 26,000 is a BUYING opportunity now imo. Am invested and expect a (real) rocket. (My) next target is @ 44,000. Good Luck @ all.

https://gregorymannarino.substack.com/p/bitcoin-in-a-bubble/comment/38986194

...

^^^ very stable genius ...

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Managed, Fake markets!

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No excuse. We must trade on what we are offered. Fake or not ...

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GBTC, wow!

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Lovely , keep the shit show going

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I could never figure out why the dollar is so high to begin with, it’s worthless

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I agree with you 100%, but most of the rest of fiat currencies are as well.

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USD is like the ugly chick at the bar between last call and when the lights come on.

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Aug 29, 2023·edited Aug 29, 2023

the DXY is not the actual value of the US Dollar. It's a metric system that compares its value to other currency's around the world, and in comparison the US Dollar is the best fiat currency there is.

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Their methodology appears overly simplistic because they're measuring dollar value by the current exchange rate. Comparing relative value over a specific time period would provide a better indication of strength.

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Thanks for keeping me on track.

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Solid. Appreciate the update.

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I'm so sick of this every couple of weeks, the demise of this corrupt country can't come soon enough we far as I'm concerned. Sick to death of it.

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Aug 29, 2023·edited Aug 29, 2023

Won't last anymore than it has any other time. Every couple weeks we have the ten year slide, stonks up, yada yada, only to have it reverse.

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Yea market getting a bounce. Turned on the power

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This underlines the coming success of the bricks just paying with money where nobody did any labor for... sooner or later USA have to join the bricks also but by then America is just a shadow for what it was... good luck Amerika

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Yes, you are right!

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