I bought a USO call option on Feb 8th and am down 53%. I wanted to buy into the dip today, but crude looks like it wants to drop some more so I will wait until tomorrow or farther out to buy more calls.
Well, you called the "something to prop up oil" quite well. I don't know about supercarrier ships, but smaller 300ft oil rig supply ships have rudders that do go out sometimes. I was on a ship up in the wheelhouse talking to the captain when it happened. His face got red, his knuckles turned white and I asked him was he ok. He said "I lost my rudder and I am losing control of the ship." That was nice to hear. Fun times. We were in a two way channel heading out to open sea and ships were close to us going in the opposite direction and we were heading straight for them. Hahahahahahahahaa! Cap'n about had a heart attack, but he shut down the main engines to slow down our forward progress and finally got the bow thrusters operating again.
I've got $5509 that I've been trying to flush after my boyfriend cheated on me on New Years. Was our honeymoon fund. Guess I should have bought straight calls for AXP and MSFT.
I love Greg and his work. But I don't understand why more people don't take it on themselves to learn more about options trading and do DD on each stock before buying. On TD use the options trading course.
Hi Kathy, Because it's too much work. I've watched people get crushed because of your exact reason. People just want to be told what to buy and sell and blame Greg for not telling them when to sell. I think Greg is very smart BUT does not know option fundamentals. He gives his "Lions" ideas BUT does not teach. His book is worthless in the options world.
But at the same time, no one could have predicted what happened in the last 2 months. Sideways movement for many stocks and some even tanked. Now, we have a good opportunity to average down with the pan sell-off. Or wait until some serious fear comes into the market.
Hi Ryan, Yes, you can to an extent. I monitor (trade) option order flow (i.e. how the public trades/what the dealers (who provide liquidity do.)) For example, the downdraft we are seeing has been in development for ~9 trading sessions. Here is something to prove my point (I like putting myself on the spot). These numbers do change daily because they monitor option gamma. SPX 3900 will be the resistance level. 3895-3876-3860 and then all the way down to the put wall of 3700 (are the supports). That 3700 is the level of BIG put options (dealers will use to hedge off of this level and could provide a rallying point). In a nutshell, if we crack 3860 it will be a FLUSH to that level (could be a day or a couple of days). (keep your eye on the VIX as well). This is NOT what I think....this is based on order flow and the market makers who provide liquidy are doing. Now to the upside, the market WILL NOT act normal until SPX ~3950 (as of today's number).
Also, since we are at negative gamma WATCH the volatility. It's pretty cool
There is way more to this concept...... this is a very brief explanation.
Probably will try to bounce off of 3850....watch the VIX is SOOO key. If SPX remains below 3900 is Extremely exposed to a sell-off. Regardless of today's close.
the VIX is up ~1.15. If the VIX goes down (fear reduces) will lift the market. The technical version. As a large number of puts that were purchased this morning will start losing value. The market makers who sold those puts will adjust their positions. Remember there are two sides of the trade...people who buy/sell and the market makers who have to provide liquidy. MM do not care about the direction they just want to be delta neutral. This is the basis of how I trade.
Brief example
Ryan: Buys a call because you believe whatever your trading is going up
Paul (as the MM): needs to sell you the call.
The result. Paul does NOT want to be short of anything. I would go out into the market to buy the stock/future in order to be delta neutral.
This happens on every trade on any exchange every day
Oh, they will probably start a war to get crude propped up again. Good! 😃
Why didn't someone tell me to buy oil yesterday? I might have bought oil today but it rebounded too much so I'm staying out.
I bought a USO call option on Feb 8th and am down 53%. I wanted to buy into the dip today, but crude looks like it wants to drop some more so I will wait until tomorrow or farther out to buy more calls.
crude oil seasonal-chart
https://www.seasonalcharts.de/img/ENERGY-FUT/CRUDEOIL.GIF
Personally I would not be surprised seeing Oil going down to about 52 USD soon and then skyrocketing.
Well, you called the "something to prop up oil" quite well. I don't know about supercarrier ships, but smaller 300ft oil rig supply ships have rudders that do go out sometimes. I was on a ship up in the wheelhouse talking to the captain when it happened. His face got red, his knuckles turned white and I asked him was he ok. He said "I lost my rudder and I am losing control of the ship." That was nice to hear. Fun times. We were in a two way channel heading out to open sea and ships were close to us going in the opposite direction and we were heading straight for them. Hahahahahahahahaa! Cap'n about had a heart attack, but he shut down the main engines to slow down our forward progress and finally got the bow thrusters operating again.
Epic video as always!!
Might want to take a little responsibility for recommending BABA...SLV...MSFT.....AXP.... I'll stop here.
Good luck to everyone the rest of the week. With the penetration of 3920....3901...3890 on the SPX could mean ALOT of volatility for everyone.
Trade safe and be liquid
I've got $5509 that I've been trying to flush after my boyfriend cheated on me on New Years. Was our honeymoon fund. Guess I should have bought straight calls for AXP and MSFT.
LOL, sorry that happened to you.
Quick wit, good comment.
I love Greg and his work. But I don't understand why more people don't take it on themselves to learn more about options trading and do DD on each stock before buying. On TD use the options trading course.
Hi Kathy, Because it's too much work. I've watched people get crushed because of your exact reason. People just want to be told what to buy and sell and blame Greg for not telling them when to sell. I think Greg is very smart BUT does not know option fundamentals. He gives his "Lions" ideas BUT does not teach. His book is worthless in the options world.
Trade safe and liquid
Agreed, had read his book and at best a primer or overview. Perhaps best for a bull market as evidenced.
Correct
But at the same time, no one could have predicted what happened in the last 2 months. Sideways movement for many stocks and some even tanked. Now, we have a good opportunity to average down with the pan sell-off. Or wait until some serious fear comes into the market.
Hi Ryan, Yes, you can to an extent. I monitor (trade) option order flow (i.e. how the public trades/what the dealers (who provide liquidity do.)) For example, the downdraft we are seeing has been in development for ~9 trading sessions. Here is something to prove my point (I like putting myself on the spot). These numbers do change daily because they monitor option gamma. SPX 3900 will be the resistance level. 3895-3876-3860 and then all the way down to the put wall of 3700 (are the supports). That 3700 is the level of BIG put options (dealers will use to hedge off of this level and could provide a rallying point). In a nutshell, if we crack 3860 it will be a FLUSH to that level (could be a day or a couple of days). (keep your eye on the VIX as well). This is NOT what I think....this is based on order flow and the market makers who provide liquidy are doing. Now to the upside, the market WILL NOT act normal until SPX ~3950 (as of today's number).
Also, since we are at negative gamma WATCH the volatility. It's pretty cool
There is way more to this concept...... this is a very brief explanation.
Trade safe and liquid
Already broke below 3860... flushing down indeed.
Probably will try to bounce off of 3850....watch the VIX is SOOO key. If SPX remains below 3900 is Extremely exposed to a sell-off. Regardless of today's close.
What exactly am I watching for the VIX?
the VIX is up ~1.15. If the VIX goes down (fear reduces) will lift the market. The technical version. As a large number of puts that were purchased this morning will start losing value. The market makers who sold those puts will adjust their positions. Remember there are two sides of the trade...people who buy/sell and the market makers who have to provide liquidy. MM do not care about the direction they just want to be delta neutral. This is the basis of how I trade.
Brief example
Ryan: Buys a call because you believe whatever your trading is going up
Paul (as the MM): needs to sell you the call.
The result. Paul does NOT want to be short of anything. I would go out into the market to buy the stock/future in order to be delta neutral.
This happens on every trade on any exchange every day
Oracle of Omaha's oil trains possibly, and still keeping eye on Malacca Straight and other bottlenecks..