To me I see a 5 wave rise in the 10yr rates followed by an A-B-C 3 wave correction, It looks like the 10 yr bond is breaking out now of the downtrend correction in rates. It is not hard for me to understand as looking out 8 years one can see $40 plus trillion of new debt supply. This takes into account Trump's planned tax cuts plus the budget deficit of currently of $2 plus trillion a year and the need to refi maturing bonds. Forty $ trillion might be base numbers if big holders of US debt like China and Japan unload, remember American sentiment is NOT what it has been!
Can anybody imagine what this country looks like fiscally with $50 plus trillion in debt and 10% or higher rates?
My take...feel 100% free to disagree. The selection is over. Trump is looking for payback...so is the left. They're going to let it go now and blame Trump. So far the MMRI is doing exactly what I thought it would do, they might push it back down again once or twice before Trump takes office in January, but after that...it's payback time, and yes, everyone is going to suffer.
Like I said eventually there will be no more of the MMRI under 300 those days are numbered here in America it's going to be wild wild west and I'm lighting the biggest cigar ever made not if but when it goes over 420 I'm going out happy
The Fed has 2 priorities to control inflatiom and not cause huge unemployment. I believe they have failed at both objectives, The world economy is entering a depression I believe, if past is prolog they will all devalue there currencies. FDR revalued gold from $20/oz to $35/oz if I remember. Expect financial represion, save gold, and silver, possibly crypto. I recently convinced myself to buy a small position in crypto. Look up Hugo Stinnes see how he survived the economic collapse in Germany in the 1920's
If the FED doesn't step in this week, the trend Iine break will be confirmed to the upside.
To me I see a 5 wave rise in the 10yr rates followed by an A-B-C 3 wave correction, It looks like the 10 yr bond is breaking out now of the downtrend correction in rates. It is not hard for me to understand as looking out 8 years one can see $40 plus trillion of new debt supply. This takes into account Trump's planned tax cuts plus the budget deficit of currently of $2 plus trillion a year and the need to refi maturing bonds. Forty $ trillion might be base numbers if big holders of US debt like China and Japan unload, remember American sentiment is NOT what it has been!
Can anybody imagine what this country looks like fiscally with $50 plus trillion in debt and 10% or higher rates?
TA is, at best, a lagging indicator. You can create many scenarios that disprove these beliefs.
So if MMRI breaks above 300 do we get out?
Still not broken previous high. Next few weeks pivotal on that score; suspect Fed action extremely likely.
But Zion Don and his designated flunkies are saying, "Everything is fine!"
My take...feel 100% free to disagree. The selection is over. Trump is looking for payback...so is the left. They're going to let it go now and blame Trump. So far the MMRI is doing exactly what I thought it would do, they might push it back down again once or twice before Trump takes office in January, but after that...it's payback time, and yes, everyone is going to suffer.
Like I said eventually there will be no more of the MMRI under 300 those days are numbered here in America it's going to be wild wild west and I'm lighting the biggest cigar ever made not if but when it goes over 420 I'm going out happy
The Fed has 2 priorities to control inflatiom and not cause huge unemployment. I believe they have failed at both objectives, The world economy is entering a depression I believe, if past is prolog they will all devalue there currencies. FDR revalued gold from $20/oz to $35/oz if I remember. Expect financial represion, save gold, and silver, possibly crypto. I recently convinced myself to buy a small position in crypto. Look up Hugo Stinnes see how he survived the economic collapse in Germany in the 1920's
What everyone’s thoughts on XRP? Its doing great
I high of 300 possible or just a pull back the a pullback to 260. That is what I see.
IMHO
For Trading View Lion Users:
10Y1!*DXY/1.61
Now that the election is over the FED will try to support the USD. This means higher bond rates. Expect the MMRI to go to 350+ and the VIX above 30.
Re-posting from last night, this is not tech analysis of the mmri, but the 10yr:
Looks like when the FFR goes above the 10 yr, and then crosses back below, at that point, a market drop occurs.
https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/insights/latest-insights/chart-the-fed-funds-rate-vs.-10-year-treasuries
Another way to look at it:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/seriesBeta/T10YFF
Fed will step in, or the incoming wannabe dictator will cry to the Supreme Court and gain power over the fed and step in more than ever before.
Would you please share how to add this to Tradingview - much appreciate it!
10Y1!*DXY/1.61
Awesome!!! Thank you!!!