Watch the condors...My favorite strategy. Option gamma unwinding due to OPEX today. Traders will probably sell to unwind hedges next week. On the SPX 3882 Vol trigger...3800 Selloff. In a nutshell huge spike of Volo coming.
in terms of probability is easier to have a winning position as you bet against the expected movements of the stock (that are usually exaggerated) but in terms of quantity it depends on how much do you want to risk (i.e: I risk $1000 with a $10 spread at delta 0.2 (~80% success rate) then I would get a credit near 200$ after opening.
Time decay (Theta) plays in favor of my position and implied volatility (Vega) plays against, usually you don't just sit and wait to the position to close at expiration, option sellers use to close their positions before and do adjustments if the stock moves against their position.
Check out that 10yy. Up up up! I wouldn’t hold anything long over the weekend.
99% of my option positions are credit spreads (sometimes combined to be iron condors)
Watch the condors...My favorite strategy. Option gamma unwinding due to OPEX today. Traders will probably sell to unwind hedges next week. On the SPX 3882 Vol trigger...3800 Selloff. In a nutshell huge spike of Volo coming.
Never tried it...just curious, are you win rates higher than holding regular calls/puts?
in terms of probability is easier to have a winning position as you bet against the expected movements of the stock (that are usually exaggerated) but in terms of quantity it depends on how much do you want to risk (i.e: I risk $1000 with a $10 spread at delta 0.2 (~80% success rate) then I would get a credit near 200$ after opening.
Time decay (Theta) plays in favor of my position and implied volatility (Vega) plays against, usually you don't just sit and wait to the position to close at expiration, option sellers use to close their positions before and do adjustments if the stock moves against their position.