Just a news item I heard lastnight Blackrock failed to file required papers with FDIC. They have till Febuary now to file. Sounds like the banks are showing cracks again.
Nota bene: typically “recessions” are announced 3-6 months AFTER the yield curve REVERT. This time around, we probably have weeks only, due to the depth and breadth of the inverted yield curve.
Is it really at a record high though? Hasn't anyone charted the MMRI and checked 2008 or the dot-Com bubble? Greg said he back tested it when he came up with it.
Everyone is expecting the FED to lower interest rates...even business's are planning for it, but the Ten Year Yield (in correlation) with the FED Funds Rate is sending a massive signal that higher rates are here to stay for longer. The Ten Year Yield has ALWAYS been the leader in the direction of the FED Funds, dating all the way back to 1913. As the Ten Year Yield dropped from 1981 to 2020, the FED Funds followed, NEVER the other way around. The Ten Year Yield from 2020 to now has been leading the way for a higher FED Funds, and the Ten Year Yield is just now moving higher than the current FED Funds Rate. The truth will be revealed if the Ten Year Yield surpasses Oct. 2023 high's (5.021%). If this happens, it will confirm that rate hikes are here to stay....regardless of what anyone says, whether it's Trump or the FED itself.
Because business's are betting for more rate cuts, they are actually hiring more people right now. But, the problem is that if they over-hire, and the FED is forced to raise rates because of the yield curve, it will send real unemployment skyrocketing faster.
The only thing that will bring rates back to zero, IMO is another disaster similar to 2020...and that in itself will create a stock market crash. The market is going to break very soon.
Well, how has the market been doing in your area or where you want to go? How much empty commercial property is around? I have been expecting a crash where I live to buy a larger property and it has continued to go up, very slowly, but up. I will wait. I know how you feel about rent, but you are providing yourself a roof over your head, heat and water... Valuable!
The MMRI is higher than Hunter Biden
Not possible.
DXY over 110 and ten year over 4.75%. Way too much risk to have much in stocks right now
What about Oil & Gas stocks? DVN seems to be doing well.
Keeping my powder dry for the fire sales and I do not mean for the Pacific Palisades.
Jewish Lightning/Blockbusting by fire.
The "coincidences" within the details are just too many to be believed.
Those are called "Cohencidences."
Just a news item I heard lastnight Blackrock failed to file required papers with FDIC. They have till Febuary now to file. Sounds like the banks are showing cracks again.
FDIC started REMOVING their graphs in Q32024 from their quarterly profile. Most notably the "unrealized losses" graph. Hmm, I wonder why.
https://www.fdic.gov/quarterly-banking-profile/quarterly-banking-profile-third-quarter-2024
Greg now would be a great time to remind you just how good the MMRI is thank you
Everyone should watch Francis Hunt’s interview on Liberty & Finance. 30 minutes.
https://rumble.com/v64ou0m-alert-5-market-signs-of-debt-collapse-within-weeks-francis.html
Nota bene: typically “recessions” are announced 3-6 months AFTER the yield curve REVERT. This time around, we probably have weeks only, due to the depth and breadth of the inverted yield curve.
Cryptos are crashing. Not just lower. When credit implode we'll see a flash crash and central banks going all in with easy money.
Is it really at a record high though? Hasn't anyone charted the MMRI and checked 2008 or the dot-Com bubble? Greg said he back tested it when he came up with it.
In 2004….
10 yr was 4.48 x
Dollar was 89 /
1.61 =
Mmri was 253 ish
Anyone can do it through historical quote's!
BUY, BUY, BUY!!!
Part of the plan, read a book called Pirate Money.
Everyone is expecting the FED to lower interest rates...even business's are planning for it, but the Ten Year Yield (in correlation) with the FED Funds Rate is sending a massive signal that higher rates are here to stay for longer. The Ten Year Yield has ALWAYS been the leader in the direction of the FED Funds, dating all the way back to 1913. As the Ten Year Yield dropped from 1981 to 2020, the FED Funds followed, NEVER the other way around. The Ten Year Yield from 2020 to now has been leading the way for a higher FED Funds, and the Ten Year Yield is just now moving higher than the current FED Funds Rate. The truth will be revealed if the Ten Year Yield surpasses Oct. 2023 high's (5.021%). If this happens, it will confirm that rate hikes are here to stay....regardless of what anyone says, whether it's Trump or the FED itself.
Because business's are betting for more rate cuts, they are actually hiring more people right now. But, the problem is that if they over-hire, and the FED is forced to raise rates because of the yield curve, it will send real unemployment skyrocketing faster.
The only thing that will bring rates back to zero, IMO is another disaster similar to 2020...and that in itself will create a stock market crash. The market is going to break very soon.
So if I want to get out of renting an apartment is this a bad time to buy? Can't take it much more flushing money down drain.
Well, how has the market been doing in your area or where you want to go? How much empty commercial property is around? I have been expecting a crash where I live to buy a larger property and it has continued to go up, very slowly, but up. I will wait. I know how you feel about rent, but you are providing yourself a roof over your head, heat and water... Valuable!
Good thing I learned about keeping my eye on the MMRI! 😀
Manno, what is your take on marketwatch reporting that stocks over valued and could remain so for a while?
PE ratios in the 30's should tell you "sumting's wong!"
If they are telling you that the market is overvalued, they are telling you that the rug is being pulled out
You called it Greg! Thanks to you I got out of the stock market.♡
This sell-off maybe just a nudge, be ready for anything.
I think signs point to a crash.