There were two signs when bond yields began freefalling like we are seeing now. The first time was in August of 2019, the second time was in February of 2020, when the market topped. The 10YY cratered from 1.5% to 0.33% at a very fast pace in February of 2020, the MMRI was at 103 and fell to 19.
The 10YY hasn't fallen this fast in this short of a period of time since then. A cratering MMRI is an ominous sign that something much more is happening behind closed doors that usually hints a Black Swan Event is near. You can go back in time and see that a free falling MMRI means something massive is happening that is forcing the Federal Reserve to purchase massive amounts of debt, because a future event (fear) pushes the stock market down, and they need that firepower to prevent it from collapsing.
I am not disagreeing with Mannarino. The market will eventually hit new high's, but if the MMRI freefalls from 278 (top) to the bottom of where it was during the pandemic, then the market is most likely going to fall twice (maybe three times) as much as the 2020 crash, and be bought back up much faster than the pandemic.
This is why I have no intention of buying the dips here. I am waiting to see how far this falls or crashes, and if the MMRI continues to move in a trajectory to pandemic lows, while the market continues to fall, then this strengthens the case that we are about to witness a massive Black Swan Event.
The10YT-2YT curve going back over 0.0% and staying over 0.0% almost ALWAYS guarantees a manufactured "crisis."
Just in recent history, First Gulf War (1990), 9/11 (2001), GFC (2007), and Convid (2019) all happened after a 10YT-2YT uninversion into positive territory. What's coming is going to be especially nasty because we're nearing the end of the longest sustained yield curve inversion in history. It got as high as -0.09% yesterday in a bull steepener move. (2YT has been falling faster than 10YT.) Usually SHTF within 6 months of a sustained uninversion back over 0.0%.
Overlay FEDFUNDS over top the 10Y-2Y, and what do you see...? FEDFUNDS is almost ALWAYS cut when it becomes clear the uninversion is going to remain above 0.0%.
FEDFUNDS follows 2YT VERY closely, so I would expect a potential cut based on recent 2YT action. However, the CRASH ALWAYS follows the FEDFUNDS cut, and on that downslope is when some real deals can be had.
I'm not really concerned about the fake stock market based on fake values and fake narratives. I only have a 401(k) because of the company match, and I'm 95% stable value money market since Jan 2024. I just keep an eye on this stuff to stack more PM's and to pick up some houses on the cheap.
Right or wrong, you present some interesting perspevtives. As a buyer of hard assets, i buy on low periods, like most. i am an aversge guy, i try to average my buys... i trade because i wish to buy hard... but i do not want to be late.
Agreed. Everyone has their own philosophy of trading, but since the market was due for a fall, i've been currently shorting for the past two weeks, not buying the dips. The market has already broken through a solid support level, so SPX 5,000 is most likely around the corner. I'll probably switch my stance around that level, depending on what else goes on. Shorting isn't for everyone, and it holds huge risk...which is why many people do not encourage it. I like shorting because i want to make the profits on the way down, and then use those profits to buy more cheaper.
Shorting will work. However I warn people on options due to the possibility the markets CLOSE like they did in 2001. Unfortunately when they close this time it won't be for several days as they may not reopen for 6 months or more.
I don't do options, i don't want to deal with time decay. I like building positions with shares. I may venture into options trading if i have enough to risk, but i agree with Greg, this is a volatile time. These past few weeks, options traders have been getting murdered both ways. The algo's creating this volatility and burning value. Owning shares is less profitable, but it gets the job done on the way down.
I have been an options trader, its all about the timing! But since I have been following GM I have remained flat as he has been right. I was hoping to hear him give the sell call before buying puts. If this market closes below 39,000 Mon I will be pissed!!
I agree with you and Gregg. My fear is when things do crater I won’t be able to get out fast enough…so I’m going to buy more coins. It’s the only thing I feel confident in. Good luck everyone!!
Towards the end of the time I was in crypto from 2017-2021, I became more and more worried I would get scammed by an EXCHANGE and divested my gains into PM's.
It's definitely not above the scumbag bankers and parasites to lock people in a burning building while they parachute off the roof.
The Crowdstrike thing recently? Just a test run...
I told you people years ago, but you didn't believe me. Well, it's at the doors now so what are you going to do? Nada! America is going to go to war with Iran and will LOSE!
S.J.Res.106 - A joint resolution to authorize the use of United States Armed Forces against the Islamic Republic of Iran for threatening the national security of the United States through the development of nuclear weapons. 118th Congress (2023-2024)
You trump-voters have been telling me for YEARS that America has the most powerful military on planet earth. Is that so? Then why did America reall the Eisenhower Carrier Battle Group back from attacking the rock-throwing, third world Houtis? Because they couldn't stop the Houtis, that's why? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaa! Eeeeeeeeeeheheheheheheeeee! 🤣 😃 👍
The Houtis have a blockade of Israel in the Red Sea that Israel, nor the United States can stop.Hahahahahahahahahahaaa! 😃 🤣 🤣 🤣
That's right, run on back to America with your tail tucked between your legs. Hahahahahaaa!
Biden Struck By Houthi Fear? US Recalls Carrier Eisenhower Amid Relentless Attacks By Yemeni Rebels
I've been telling you for YEARS that America is under THE JUDGMENT OF GOD, but did you believe me? Noooo. Good. Now you're done for. You refused to take action while the getting was good, now it's TOO LATE! Eeeeeheheheheheheheheeee 😈 😈 😈
It's too late now. You're going DOWN 👇 Edomites! Heheheheheeeee! 🤣 🤣 🤣
I am so HAPPY! HAPPY! HAPPY! HAPPY! HAPPY! HAPPY! HAPPY! 😃 😆 😆 🥳
The genius of what Trump did with lowering rates, which we know creates higher inflation is this:
He offset the effect on the purchasers by keeping the price of oil at an incredibly low rate...$30 / barrel. This offsetting kept the prices at the gas station, grocery store, parts distributors etc low, very low by comparison today. Unfortunately, the goofy president of today and Kamel lips don't understand the importance of Trumps policy.
Since the history of man kind the rich have been in control and have called all the shots and will always be in control, the rich are the government = Fact
Who controls the food supply controls the people
Who controls the energy can control whole continents
Greg, bullseye! ... Add to your brilliant observations... the U.S. Military Operative, Computer programmer and Scientists... just reported that behind the scenes... the CBDC is already in place... Bitcoin is a Perfected System... Russia was just approved to pay debts with Bitcoin as was Germany... and the Vaccine Passport "Digital I.D." system is ready to DEPLOY in every state. Biden authorized another National Emergency called the PREP ACT earlier this week... and EVERYTHING WILL BE DONE BY DECEMBER... when the new global financial system will be a 'Fait Accompli.'
Greg is very correct... we are in a war... fighting invisible, cloaked enemies... that parade around as 'Bankers'... with a few puppet politicians..... Reporting. R.E. Sutherland, M.Ed./sciences
The BOJ raised rates which lit a fire under the YEN. This had many implications thru world markets not the least of which increased the cost of the YEN carry trade. This trade has financed all manner of financial investments thru out the world.
An investor should seek some knowledgeable advice on the ramifications of the current yen carry.
One other note. If you look back over the last 20 years it is rare to see a big fall in stocks on Fri. The big crashes have started on Thurs and then Mon saw the BIG move, like 1987 when the DJIA dropped 22%!
Japan's Nikkei 225 just had its second worst daily plunge in its history on Friday, August 2nd, dropping 2,216.63 points. Japan's Nikke Stock Index and Hong Kong's HSI are both crashing in a meltdown.
The Great Great Depression Is Here, Got Gold, Get Gold!
Six in 10 (60%) Canadians say people living paycheque to paycheque is today's norm, according to a report from H&R Block Canada. And while 26% say that the cost of living will shift down the road, 73% say that Canadians overall will suffer down the road by not having enough money put aside.
Apr 4, 2024
Our survey revealed that over 66% of Americans report living paycheck to paycheck. A recent Bureau of Labor Statistics weekly earnings report indicated a 3.5% year-over-year increase in median weekly earnings for the first quarter of 2024.May 30, 2024
It is my understanding that laws are now in place that allow U.S. government (Fed?) to confiscate our financial assets, from both equity and bond markets, under certain emergency conditions. My direct question is: what good is it to continue to invest in paper investments denominated in U.S. dollars, if these assets will likely be taken away from us in a crisis?
Because I respect your opinion and financial expertise, I would greatly appreciate your response to this question in one of your podcasts (reference: THE GREAT TAKING by David Rogers Webb).
Not only is the MMRI in free-fall but so is our society. Any one ever heard of Sodom and Gomorrah?
This is not the thing we need to receive blessing from God!
Epidemic of Child Sex Abuse in School Sparks Outrage
The problem is still growing. A much more recent study published just last year found that almost 12 percent of recent high-school graduates reported at least one form of sexual misconduct by educators during K-12. The research, based on a survey of 6632 participants, found that few reports resulted in disciplinary action against the educators in question.
While only a tiny fraction of the abuse and misconduct is reported, the number of reports is astounding. Consider that between 2017 and 2018, an incredible 14,152 reports of sexual assault by educators or school faculty were filed. That was an increase of 53 percent from 2015 to 2016.
This is but one excerpt from a study done by a hopefully inaccurately named “Shakeshaft Report,” authored by Carol Shakeshaft!
There were two signs when bond yields began freefalling like we are seeing now. The first time was in August of 2019, the second time was in February of 2020, when the market topped. The 10YY cratered from 1.5% to 0.33% at a very fast pace in February of 2020, the MMRI was at 103 and fell to 19.
The 10YY hasn't fallen this fast in this short of a period of time since then. A cratering MMRI is an ominous sign that something much more is happening behind closed doors that usually hints a Black Swan Event is near. You can go back in time and see that a free falling MMRI means something massive is happening that is forcing the Federal Reserve to purchase massive amounts of debt, because a future event (fear) pushes the stock market down, and they need that firepower to prevent it from collapsing.
I am not disagreeing with Mannarino. The market will eventually hit new high's, but if the MMRI freefalls from 278 (top) to the bottom of where it was during the pandemic, then the market is most likely going to fall twice (maybe three times) as much as the 2020 crash, and be bought back up much faster than the pandemic.
This is why I have no intention of buying the dips here. I am waiting to see how far this falls or crashes, and if the MMRI continues to move in a trajectory to pandemic lows, while the market continues to fall, then this strengthens the case that we are about to witness a massive Black Swan Event.
The10YT-2YT curve going back over 0.0% and staying over 0.0% almost ALWAYS guarantees a manufactured "crisis."
Just in recent history, First Gulf War (1990), 9/11 (2001), GFC (2007), and Convid (2019) all happened after a 10YT-2YT uninversion into positive territory. What's coming is going to be especially nasty because we're nearing the end of the longest sustained yield curve inversion in history. It got as high as -0.09% yesterday in a bull steepener move. (2YT has been falling faster than 10YT.) Usually SHTF within 6 months of a sustained uninversion back over 0.0%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
Overlay FEDFUNDS over top the 10Y-2Y, and what do you see...? FEDFUNDS is almost ALWAYS cut when it becomes clear the uninversion is going to remain above 0.0%.
FEDFUNDS follows 2YT VERY closely, so I would expect a potential cut based on recent 2YT action. However, the CRASH ALWAYS follows the FEDFUNDS cut, and on that downslope is when some real deals can be had.
I'm not really concerned about the fake stock market based on fake values and fake narratives. I only have a 401(k) because of the company match, and I'm 95% stable value money market since Jan 2024. I just keep an eye on this stuff to stack more PM's and to pick up some houses on the cheap.
Right or wrong, you present some interesting perspevtives. As a buyer of hard assets, i buy on low periods, like most. i am an aversge guy, i try to average my buys... i trade because i wish to buy hard... but i do not want to be late.
Agreed. Everyone has their own philosophy of trading, but since the market was due for a fall, i've been currently shorting for the past two weeks, not buying the dips. The market has already broken through a solid support level, so SPX 5,000 is most likely around the corner. I'll probably switch my stance around that level, depending on what else goes on. Shorting isn't for everyone, and it holds huge risk...which is why many people do not encourage it. I like shorting because i want to make the profits on the way down, and then use those profits to buy more cheaper.
Shorting will work. However I warn people on options due to the possibility the markets CLOSE like they did in 2001. Unfortunately when they close this time it won't be for several days as they may not reopen for 6 months or more.
I don't do options, i don't want to deal with time decay. I like building positions with shares. I may venture into options trading if i have enough to risk, but i agree with Greg, this is a volatile time. These past few weeks, options traders have been getting murdered both ways. The algo's creating this volatility and burning value. Owning shares is less profitable, but it gets the job done on the way down.
I have been an options trader, its all about the timing! But since I have been following GM I have remained flat as he has been right. I was hoping to hear him give the sell call before buying puts. If this market closes below 39,000 Mon I will be pissed!!
As a buyer of hard assets you should have in your hand an asset which I believe will be the only thing left standing!
No Black Swan Event.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/02/us-military-middle-east-iran-israel-00172524
I agree with you and Gregg. My fear is when things do crater I won’t be able to get out fast enough…so I’m going to buy more coins. It’s the only thing I feel confident in. Good luck everyone!!
THIS.
Towards the end of the time I was in crypto from 2017-2021, I became more and more worried I would get scammed by an EXCHANGE and divested my gains into PM's.
It's definitely not above the scumbag bankers and parasites to lock people in a burning building while they parachute off the roof.
The Crowdstrike thing recently? Just a test run...
I told you people years ago, but you didn't believe me. Well, it's at the doors now so what are you going to do? Nada! America is going to go to war with Iran and will LOSE!
S.J.Res.106 - A joint resolution to authorize the use of United States Armed Forces against the Islamic Republic of Iran for threatening the national security of the United States through the development of nuclear weapons. 118th Congress (2023-2024)
Source:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-joint-resolution/106
You trump-voters have been telling me for YEARS that America has the most powerful military on planet earth. Is that so? Then why did America reall the Eisenhower Carrier Battle Group back from attacking the rock-throwing, third world Houtis? Because they couldn't stop the Houtis, that's why? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaa! Eeeeeeeeeeheheheheheheeeee! 🤣 😃 👍
The Houtis have a blockade of Israel in the Red Sea that Israel, nor the United States can stop.Hahahahahahahahahahaaa! 😃 🤣 🤣 🤣
That's right, run on back to America with your tail tucked between your legs. Hahahahahaaa!
Biden Struck By Houthi Fear? US Recalls Carrier Eisenhower Amid Relentless Attacks By Yemeni Rebels
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gfu3gcPIkw&list=WL&index=2
I've been telling you for YEARS that America is under THE JUDGMENT OF GOD, but did you believe me? Noooo. Good. Now you're done for. You refused to take action while the getting was good, now it's TOO LATE! Eeeeeheheheheheheheheeee 😈 😈 😈
It's too late now. You're going DOWN 👇 Edomites! Heheheheheeeee! 🤣 🤣 🤣
I am so HAPPY! HAPPY! HAPPY! HAPPY! HAPPY! HAPPY! HAPPY! 😃 😆 😆 🥳
Kommie-La Harris-(((Emhoff))) and Josh (((Shapiro))).
A match made in Tel Aviv.
Not like the Zion Don Trump-(((Kushner))) is a better ticket as far as Americans are concerned.
Things are ran by a Zionist Occupied Government aka ZOG.
The genius of what Trump did with lowering rates, which we know creates higher inflation is this:
He offset the effect on the purchasers by keeping the price of oil at an incredibly low rate...$30 / barrel. This offsetting kept the prices at the gas station, grocery store, parts distributors etc low, very low by comparison today. Unfortunately, the goofy president of today and Kamel lips don't understand the importance of Trumps policy.
Presidents don't run anything.
The last one that tried to buck The Fed got smoked in Dallas in 1963.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_11110
And people believe John Hinckley shot at Rappin Ronnie Reagan in 1981 to impress a young Jodie Foster.
Since the history of man kind the rich have been in control and have called all the shots and will always be in control, the rich are the government = Fact
Who controls the food supply controls the people
Who controls the energy can control whole continents
Who controls the money controls the world
( Henry Kissinger)
Greg, bullseye! ... Add to your brilliant observations... the U.S. Military Operative, Computer programmer and Scientists... just reported that behind the scenes... the CBDC is already in place... Bitcoin is a Perfected System... Russia was just approved to pay debts with Bitcoin as was Germany... and the Vaccine Passport "Digital I.D." system is ready to DEPLOY in every state. Biden authorized another National Emergency called the PREP ACT earlier this week... and EVERYTHING WILL BE DONE BY DECEMBER... when the new global financial system will be a 'Fait Accompli.'
Link to MFATW report: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u97d8ks2YIQ
Greg is very correct... we are in a war... fighting invisible, cloaked enemies... that parade around as 'Bankers'... with a few puppet politicians..... Reporting. R.E. Sutherland, M.Ed./sciences
The BOJ raised rates which lit a fire under the YEN. This had many implications thru world markets not the least of which increased the cost of the YEN carry trade. This trade has financed all manner of financial investments thru out the world.
An investor should seek some knowledgeable advice on the ramifications of the current yen carry.
One other note. If you look back over the last 20 years it is rare to see a big fall in stocks on Fri. The big crashes have started on Thurs and then Mon saw the BIG move, like 1987 when the DJIA dropped 22%!
Japan's Nikkei 225 just had its second worst daily plunge in its history on Friday, August 2nd, dropping 2,216.63 points. Japan's Nikke Stock Index and Hong Kong's HSI are both crashing in a meltdown.
Yes! I am 70% cash and 30% Canadian gold and silver mining stocks and I will add more Canadian gold and silver mining stocks...
The Great Great Depression Is Here, Got Gold, Get Gold!
Six in 10 (60%) Canadians say people living paycheque to paycheque is today's norm, according to a report from H&R Block Canada. And while 26% say that the cost of living will shift down the road, 73% say that Canadians overall will suffer down the road by not having enough money put aside.
Apr 4, 2024
Our survey revealed that over 66% of Americans report living paycheck to paycheck. A recent Bureau of Labor Statistics weekly earnings report indicated a 3.5% year-over-year increase in median weekly earnings for the first quarter of 2024.May 30, 2024
Would you please comment on the following:
It is my understanding that laws are now in place that allow U.S. government (Fed?) to confiscate our financial assets, from both equity and bond markets, under certain emergency conditions. My direct question is: what good is it to continue to invest in paper investments denominated in U.S. dollars, if these assets will likely be taken away from us in a crisis?
Because I respect your opinion and financial expertise, I would greatly appreciate your response to this question in one of your podcasts (reference: THE GREAT TAKING by David Rogers Webb).
Not only is the MMRI in free-fall but so is our society. Any one ever heard of Sodom and Gomorrah?
This is not the thing we need to receive blessing from God!
Epidemic of Child Sex Abuse in School Sparks Outrage
The problem is still growing. A much more recent study published just last year found that almost 12 percent of recent high-school graduates reported at least one form of sexual misconduct by educators during K-12. The research, based on a survey of 6632 participants, found that few reports resulted in disciplinary action against the educators in question.
While only a tiny fraction of the abuse and misconduct is reported, the number of reports is astounding. Consider that between 2017 and 2018, an incredible 14,152 reports of sexual assault by educators or school faculty were filed. That was an increase of 53 percent from 2015 to 2016.
This is but one excerpt from a study done by a hopefully inaccurately named “Shakeshaft Report,” authored by Carol Shakeshaft!
https://libertysentinel.org/epidemic-of-child-sex-abuse-in-school-sparks-outrage/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
I always follow your blog with a graet deal of interst andIalways give it at thumbs up your friend Mark.
90% of my purchases are cash...
Sounds like you don't have many online purchases.
I don't shop online...