I have significant profit in 8 shipping stocks. Most of them ‘clean’ fuel tankers. $ASC $STNG $DHT $SFL $INSW $ COOL $GLNG $ZIM
Trades entered between August and Oct 2023, additional shares added in January. Profit percentages range from 24% to 79%. All of them pay a solid dividend, 5-9%. A very overlooked sector. But it looks like the party might be over.
Momentum is slowing in all but two. Volume is down significantly over past 10 days. All but two have been red 3/4 days this week.
I sold 100% of $ASC this morning, which was the 79% gain, after it dropped 7% in two days. Two others go ex dividend today. I’m planning on waiting 1-2 hours after the open tomorrow. If the rest are still red, I’m going to pull out my entire initial investment, plus 1/2 the profit from the 4 that are north of 50%. The other 3 I’ll bail completely.
With the exception of miners, #SPUT, $JEPI, QQQ, the shipping stocks comprised the rest of my equity portfolio and 50%+ of the fiat balance. I’ll be down to about a 10% equity allocation if I follow thru.
We shall see. Overall, shipping rates are rising again due to the ongoing issues in the ME. Shippers are running longer routes, not picking up empty containers, not spending as much time in port, postponing maintenance, trying to maintain delivery schedules. Rates have doubled on some routes to the U.S. over the past month.
“From the Far East into the U.S. West Coast, it is likely spot rates will surpass the level seen at the height of the Red Sea crisis earlier this year, which demonstrates how dramatic the recent increases have been,” said Emily Stausbøll, senior shipping analyst at Xeneta….“
Most of this issue is affecting bulk carriers at the moment, whereas previously the clean fuel tankers were also affected and hence higher rates translated into higher equity prices. Of the ones I listed, at least half are committed to returning 100% of profit to SH via dividends and buybacks. Hence, all this translated into stellar returns.
But with oil prices range bound and demand somewhat softer than it should be at this time of year, as a group the clean fuel shippers equity prices have stalled out. Of the 8 I own, only one has stopped out…and all my stops are trailing at 7%…and as I said I sold $ASC so now I’m at 7.
Definitely an open question as to where they are headed. It’s a niche market to begin with and retail has very little money invested. So paying attention to momentum and flows is really important because institutions are the drivers.
For more on the complications in the general shipping industry here’s a decent article.
Well looks like for today at least the joke is on me. $ASC is up over 3%. Ah well. It’s never wrong to cash out with a 70%+ gain.
Everything else looks good. $STNG $DHT $SFL are all up over 50% for me and that is without reinvesting the dividends. What’s interesting is that volume is really low on all of them, <30% of normal if the trend holds for the day.
MMRI will soon breach 300 again. Also watch the VIX as it moves in a similar fashion. China is buying gold and dumping US debt. The US has to save the USD's reserve status. The BRICS are at the gate!
Philip Jefferson hinted big a few days ago that the treasury yields will be going up. Probably 5.5%+ . Needed to attract buyers and to support the declining USD.
Why does the market seem to care about the new bad news today? They never cared about reality before, just easy money. I just marvel at the circus act the fed continues to pull on us daily...
long weekend coming up always a chance for the rug pull
The banksters will find a way to magically prop up stonks tomorrow since it is a Friday going into a long weekend.
I have significant profit in 8 shipping stocks. Most of them ‘clean’ fuel tankers. $ASC $STNG $DHT $SFL $INSW $ COOL $GLNG $ZIM
Trades entered between August and Oct 2023, additional shares added in January. Profit percentages range from 24% to 79%. All of them pay a solid dividend, 5-9%. A very overlooked sector. But it looks like the party might be over.
Momentum is slowing in all but two. Volume is down significantly over past 10 days. All but two have been red 3/4 days this week.
I sold 100% of $ASC this morning, which was the 79% gain, after it dropped 7% in two days. Two others go ex dividend today. I’m planning on waiting 1-2 hours after the open tomorrow. If the rest are still red, I’m going to pull out my entire initial investment, plus 1/2 the profit from the 4 that are north of 50%. The other 3 I’ll bail completely.
With the exception of miners, #SPUT, $JEPI, QQQ, the shipping stocks comprised the rest of my equity portfolio and 50%+ of the fiat balance. I’ll be down to about a 10% equity allocation if I follow thru.
Bad moon rising is what I think.
Thanks for the info- I recently bought some of those shipping stocks. Looks like maybe I got in too late.
We shall see. Overall, shipping rates are rising again due to the ongoing issues in the ME. Shippers are running longer routes, not picking up empty containers, not spending as much time in port, postponing maintenance, trying to maintain delivery schedules. Rates have doubled on some routes to the U.S. over the past month.
“From the Far East into the U.S. West Coast, it is likely spot rates will surpass the level seen at the height of the Red Sea crisis earlier this year, which demonstrates how dramatic the recent increases have been,” said Emily Stausbøll, senior shipping analyst at Xeneta….“
Most of this issue is affecting bulk carriers at the moment, whereas previously the clean fuel tankers were also affected and hence higher rates translated into higher equity prices. Of the ones I listed, at least half are committed to returning 100% of profit to SH via dividends and buybacks. Hence, all this translated into stellar returns.
But with oil prices range bound and demand somewhat softer than it should be at this time of year, as a group the clean fuel shippers equity prices have stalled out. Of the 8 I own, only one has stopped out…and all my stops are trailing at 7%…and as I said I sold $ASC so now I’m at 7.
Definitely an open question as to where they are headed. It’s a niche market to begin with and retail has very little money invested. So paying attention to momentum and flows is really important because institutions are the drivers.
For more on the complications in the general shipping industry here’s a decent article.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/23/a-sudden-container-crunch-is-sending-ocean-freight-rates-soaring.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Good luck. We will hope for the best.
Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts on this!
I'll check out the article.
Yes, good luck and hope for the best!
You are most welcome. Pre market looks good.
Well looks like for today at least the joke is on me. $ASC is up over 3%. Ah well. It’s never wrong to cash out with a 70%+ gain.
Everything else looks good. $STNG $DHT $SFL are all up over 50% for me and that is without reinvesting the dividends. What’s interesting is that volume is really low on all of them, <30% of normal if the trend holds for the day.
Gold is really taking a beating today, hopefully silver can stay above $30
Greg please answer, should we sell oil if they’re gonna stage another pandemic?
I'm not selling... yet.
Alright thanks. Energy is a very sensitive market, so hopefully we won’t be too late
These markets will hopefully go to ZERO.
Right on schedule for the holiday weekend, or is this the quiet before the storm?
Something seems to be happening, warnings about critical infrastructure, war, immigrants and to stock up on 3 days of food/water from the UK govt 3 days before they launch a new UK Gov preparation website: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNfGy6VtwRg&ab_channel=NeilMcCoy-Ward
the stock market can be very Moody.........lol
it must be that time of the month for the Stock Market.......very Moody.......lol......
MMRI will soon breach 300 again. Also watch the VIX as it moves in a similar fashion. China is buying gold and dumping US debt. The US has to save the USD's reserve status. The BRICS are at the gate!
thanks for the warning. sold qqq and bought sqqq. staying in control
JPMorgan is saying that the S&P 500 will drop by 20% this year.
Vice President of the Federal Reserve
Philip Jefferson hinted big a few days ago that the treasury yields will be going up. Probably 5.5%+ . Needed to attract buyers and to support the declining USD.
Why does the market seem to care about the new bad news today? They never cared about reality before, just easy money. I just marvel at the circus act the fed continues to pull on us daily...
Look at VIX, it is shaping as huge 5 days bullish engulfing pattern with 1.5 hours of trading. When vix is going up, it puts pressure on the market
Of course it's rising!
Maybe they float out Nick the pig or one of the other freaks.
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