What ever happened to “T-bill and chill”? The 10-year and even 2-year seem like way too much worry in such an uncertain, volatile environment to bother with, especially considering the magnitude of loss if the Fed surprises to the upside. Imagine holding at 4% and change in an increasingly inflationary environment for ten years? 😂😂 Besides, as I understand, the amount of profit that would have to be made to overcome the difference with month after month or year after year of higher gains on the 4- or 8-week bills, is enormous. Rates would have to go lower and lower over time to compensate, wouldn’t they? Is that worth betting on?
Just buy 4- and 8- week bills with the plan to hold to maturity, scoop up some of the yield from time to time, trade your paper profits for gold and silver, and relax. Sell if the end looks pretty imminent. If that’s the case, nobody’s going to want anything, especially long bonds, so having bills won’t be any handicap. At least you’ll have a better chance of sneaking some bonds in under the wire with a string of contiguous 4-week maturities if the US makes rumblings of a potential outright default.
Unless there’s really solid reason to believe the Fed will rapidly slam rates down to 0 or go negative, the 10-year isn’t worth it on an inverted curve and deflationary forces battling inflation, IMO. Given the presidential selection cycle coming to a head in 10 months, I don’t trust even the 2-year. I think the monetary death spiral will be so entrenched by then that going out two years for yield will be foolish. If we make it to November, even with war pulling cash into the now the whole time (questionable if there’s that much cash even available any more), the rug will get pulled shortly after. Even if Trump gets in and tries again to jigger the markets by deepening the deficit, he won’t be able to do it. The shell game is coming to an end. Nothing but hard assets will matter soon. So get yield while you can, then skim it off and turn it into PM’s in your hand. That’s my thinking, anyway. Would be interested in comments.
I don't understand why the 10-year would plummet if US strike on Iran is imminent (which I think is likely). Is that because institutions flee long end to go to T-bills for "safety"?
I agree Greg. Also, there's upward trendlines on the 2yr and 10yr yields that were broken around mid-December and it does look pretty bearish for bond yields as 'the buyer of last resort' scoops up all the debt along with big players. I'm waiting for the Fed to announce rate cuts and to start buying as the market has dropped more almost every time after the fed started to cut rates after a 2 yr and 10 yr yield curve inversion like we've been in for a long time. The length of time of the drop in the markets after the Fed cuts usually is about 9 months, could be more could be less.
Young man, would you know the answer to this? Is this actually TRUE?
Wendy Patterson
@wendyp4545
Breaking News:
I learned the answer to this question
Iran and China have formed a deep partnership intertwining their investments so much so that Iran has become a proxy for China.
They're using the US Capital Market on our Stock Exchange that are empty pods that Vanguard built up on 38 different Stocks that Americans are funding unknowingly, virtually paying for China's expansion.
These Chinese, Iran Stocks aren't regulated which means they don't have to turn over any information and if they were forced to turn over information there wouldn't be any because they're just empty pods that sit and collect money for China that asset managers inflated.
The number of holdings out of 40 Chinese Firms linked to Iran:
that's great I'm also disabled and of a fixed income Gold will probably go to 6000 dollars per ounce I've got two ounces of gold and a whole lot of silver!
i spend alot of time doing charity at hopitals i love helping people but no pay and thats ok. one intwresting thing is that 2 of the hospitals i do charity work at are preparing for a six month power outage, some of the higher ups took a liking to me
thank you but i promised him id pass it down as a family heirloom. after my wife left me because of my disablement she took the kids and moved to moracco. my legs were blown off in war. so really the only one i have is my dog , no heirlooms but i still cant cash it in because i pronised him. so they dont help me day to day.
But it’s also FED day
At what time is the Fed "Ruling" to be handed down?
What ever happened to “T-bill and chill”? The 10-year and even 2-year seem like way too much worry in such an uncertain, volatile environment to bother with, especially considering the magnitude of loss if the Fed surprises to the upside. Imagine holding at 4% and change in an increasingly inflationary environment for ten years? 😂😂 Besides, as I understand, the amount of profit that would have to be made to overcome the difference with month after month or year after year of higher gains on the 4- or 8-week bills, is enormous. Rates would have to go lower and lower over time to compensate, wouldn’t they? Is that worth betting on?
Just buy 4- and 8- week bills with the plan to hold to maturity, scoop up some of the yield from time to time, trade your paper profits for gold and silver, and relax. Sell if the end looks pretty imminent. If that’s the case, nobody’s going to want anything, especially long bonds, so having bills won’t be any handicap. At least you’ll have a better chance of sneaking some bonds in under the wire with a string of contiguous 4-week maturities if the US makes rumblings of a potential outright default.
Unless there’s really solid reason to believe the Fed will rapidly slam rates down to 0 or go negative, the 10-year isn’t worth it on an inverted curve and deflationary forces battling inflation, IMO. Given the presidential selection cycle coming to a head in 10 months, I don’t trust even the 2-year. I think the monetary death spiral will be so entrenched by then that going out two years for yield will be foolish. If we make it to November, even with war pulling cash into the now the whole time (questionable if there’s that much cash even available any more), the rug will get pulled shortly after. Even if Trump gets in and tries again to jigger the markets by deepening the deficit, he won’t be able to do it. The shell game is coming to an end. Nothing but hard assets will matter soon. So get yield while you can, then skim it off and turn it into PM’s in your hand. That’s my thinking, anyway. Would be interested in comments.
I'm not on Instagram so I didn't get Gregory's Tech stock tip, does anyone know what it is? Thanks
I didn't know he did that. I would be interested as well.
Looks like no one knows what it is.
But the group that killed and wounded our soldiers promised not to do it again….
Smoke them all.
That’s exactly what your rulers want pal - the answer is not to be involved
That's right! How did our oil get under their land anyway?
Gregory looks like no one knows what your Tech Tip is.😛
I don't understand why the 10-year would plummet if US strike on Iran is imminent (which I think is likely). Is that because institutions flee long end to go to T-bills for "safety"?
feds keep rates unchanged
What happened to”T-bill and chill”? Seems like too much worry to be bothered by the 10 or even 2. “Will the Fed, or won’t the Fed?” Is too much
Gold is also saying the same.
All of these paper assets will end up worthless.
I agree Greg. Also, there's upward trendlines on the 2yr and 10yr yields that were broken around mid-December and it does look pretty bearish for bond yields as 'the buyer of last resort' scoops up all the debt along with big players. I'm waiting for the Fed to announce rate cuts and to start buying as the market has dropped more almost every time after the fed started to cut rates after a 2 yr and 10 yr yield curve inversion like we've been in for a long time. The length of time of the drop in the markets after the Fed cuts usually is about 9 months, could be more could be less.
thank you Greg for the update
Young man, would you know the answer to this? Is this actually TRUE?
Wendy Patterson
@wendyp4545
Breaking News:
I learned the answer to this question
Iran and China have formed a deep partnership intertwining their investments so much so that Iran has become a proxy for China.
They're using the US Capital Market on our Stock Exchange that are empty pods that Vanguard built up on 38 different Stocks that Americans are funding unknowingly, virtually paying for China's expansion.
These Chinese, Iran Stocks aren't regulated which means they don't have to turn over any information and if they were forced to turn over information there wouldn't be any because they're just empty pods that sit and collect money for China that asset managers inflated.
The number of holdings out of 40 Chinese Firms linked to Iran:
Vanguard: 38
State Street: 34
Dimensional: 29
Fidelity: 23
BlackRock: 22
should i sell all my positions because of the coming crash?
Not yet, crashes don’t happen until after rate cuts if we use 2001, 2008, and 2020 as examples
thank you its very scary im disabled on a fixed income
If you are hedged with hard assets then you shouldn’t worry
i have some gold bars that were gifted to me by a greart uncle years back
that's great I'm also disabled and of a fixed income Gold will probably go to 6000 dollars per ounce I've got two ounces of gold and a whole lot of silver!
i spend alot of time doing charity at hopitals i love helping people but no pay and thats ok. one intwresting thing is that 2 of the hospitals i do charity work at are preparing for a six month power outage, some of the higher ups took a liking to me
God bless you
You are sitting on a free gold mine! The best of all inheritance.
thank you but i promised him id pass it down as a family heirloom. after my wife left me because of my disablement she took the kids and moved to moracco. my legs were blown off in war. so really the only one i have is my dog , no heirlooms but i still cant cash it in because i pronised him. so they dont help me day to day.
They do throw out the baby with the bathwater. PM's are the first to recover!
Stocks and bonds will end up being worthless.
When? Can you pin that down?
Just saw this, definitely an interesting development.