But I don’t not know that either. I’m happy to be 50% cash. 30% metals (rising). 20% equities, a couple high dividend stocks, some speculative mining bets, energy and some emerging markets.
Not quite maximum safety mode, but close. Based on total investable assets I was down 4.3% last year. Not great. Better than most. I’ve got a nice newly built 17 week T bill ladder to put some cash to work. And I add 500 to the silver stash each month and nibble on some other ideas.
It’s easier to jump in as needed than it is to jump out. I’m old enough to have lived through the 70s inflation and everything since. I got crushed in 2001 and 2008. I’ve literally lost a million dollars once and a half a million the 2nd time. And a house. I’m way smarter now. I don’t give advice. But you know the game is rigged and it appears to me that things are being set up to part a whole lot of people from a whole lot of money. Hey. I hope I’m wrong. But I’m betting I’ll be proven correct.
Maybe. With a T bill ladder of 4-8-17 weeks you are averaging >4%. 2 year CD>4.25. You hold cash to hedge against debt deflation. Gold/Silver to hedge against current devaluation. Select equities for some income, pure speculation (jr miners), and (hopefully) some capital appreciation (emerging mkts). When I evaluate the probability of any of the major indexes returning greater than 5% this year I come up empty. The risk reward ratio not there for me. Hence, I’ll sit on the sidelines knowing with a high probability that by year end I’ll have at least nominal returns in positive territory. At 67 protecting capital for possible future deployment when risk assets are actually cheap is way more important than risking a major loss.
Ya. I am a lawyer. Or was, now retired. I deal in probabilities and not possibilities. And I got it incorrect big time. Twice. I’m way smarter now and paying more attention. And have the time and inclination and ability to do research. Here is what I know.
The average bull market in stocks since the Great Depression has lasted about 4.5 years. The average downtrend lasts about the same amount of time. Since 1928 there have been 21 bear markets (meeting official definition) averaging 330 days. The current bear market – which began June 13 of last year, is at 185 days. The shortest bear market in history, in early 2020, lasted just 33 days. The longest, when the dot com bubble burst, was 929 days.
History says the official bear has a long way to go and the overall downward trend has a long long long way to go.
Last point. Housing cycles are 18 years. 14 up. 4 down. The housing down cycles don’t necessarily correlate directly with the bear markets. They did not in 2001-2003. But when they do, look out below, the probability is extremely high that both will crash. Hard.
Housing prices peaked May 2022. The bear market began in June 2022. You can certainly figure the rest out yourself. I know you are smart because you sun to Greg!
This is why I have dialed in Maximum Safety Mode, with a wee bit of speculation on the side just in case I’m incorrect. (Lawyer are never wrong, they can be incorrect. LOL).
We don't need yields going down driving house prices higher. The Fed will come out hawkish again this week. I'm so sick of market manipulators like Nick the Pig who keep desperately hoping for a a fed pivot. He and his ilk need to be jailed.
It won't last. Just like a couple months ago, Nick the Pig comes out with bullshit and jawbones the market higher. Once the fed comes out this week hawkish once again, MMRI will pop again.
I've been noting that trend as well this has now gone on 4-5 times last year. Each time it seems to take less time to get back up there (greater debt buying needed) If yeilds start spiking again and we go over 250 mmri in short order it probably would be safe to say they are just barely keeping this thing going alot of debt is saturating the system !
Exactly. Yields will start spiking again as they have the past x times (lost count). This same scenario happened right before the holidays and the market was up for a short period, and the Fed threw ice on it just like they will again. Inflation is still through the roof no matter what wallstreet wants everyone to believe.
I think yields will start rising very soon, as the Bank of Japan is preparing for an announcement tomorrow morning. On top of the Bank of Japan, we will also be hearing from members of the ECB, and then Powell right before market open. This could be a perfect storm for massive instability in both the DXY and Bond Yields.
Greg is is possible this just goes on forever ? The people are so stupid I see no one ever fighting back they love to be slaves as long as football is on and they have some lab grown food I dont think people care at all about living in the beast system . Pretty sad
MMRI IS FALLING ALONG WITH CIVILIZATION 😁
Whats a S%^& show !
Thank you for the update. The Bear be sucking in the unwary before the mauling begins.
No, it's more like the bullz are sucking in the dumb money.
Exactly.
You don’t know that. If the Fed pivots then you’ll miss out on maybe the biggest rally ever
But I don’t not know that either. I’m happy to be 50% cash. 30% metals (rising). 20% equities, a couple high dividend stocks, some speculative mining bets, energy and some emerging markets.
Not quite maximum safety mode, but close. Based on total investable assets I was down 4.3% last year. Not great. Better than most. I’ve got a nice newly built 17 week T bill ladder to put some cash to work. And I add 500 to the silver stash each month and nibble on some other ideas.
It’s easier to jump in as needed than it is to jump out. I’m old enough to have lived through the 70s inflation and everything since. I got crushed in 2001 and 2008. I’ve literally lost a million dollars once and a half a million the 2nd time. And a house. I’m way smarter now. I don’t give advice. But you know the game is rigged and it appears to me that things are being set up to part a whole lot of people from a whole lot of money. Hey. I hope I’m wrong. But I’m betting I’ll be proven correct.
You’re going to lose if you sit in cash too
Maybe. With a T bill ladder of 4-8-17 weeks you are averaging >4%. 2 year CD>4.25. You hold cash to hedge against debt deflation. Gold/Silver to hedge against current devaluation. Select equities for some income, pure speculation (jr miners), and (hopefully) some capital appreciation (emerging mkts). When I evaluate the probability of any of the major indexes returning greater than 5% this year I come up empty. The risk reward ratio not there for me. Hence, I’ll sit on the sidelines knowing with a high probability that by year end I’ll have at least nominal returns in positive territory. At 67 protecting capital for possible future deployment when risk assets are actually cheap is way more important than risking a major loss.
Not investment advice of course. Just my view.
You will be most likely.
Ya. I am a lawyer. Or was, now retired. I deal in probabilities and not possibilities. And I got it incorrect big time. Twice. I’m way smarter now and paying more attention. And have the time and inclination and ability to do research. Here is what I know.
The average bull market in stocks since the Great Depression has lasted about 4.5 years. The average downtrend lasts about the same amount of time. Since 1928 there have been 21 bear markets (meeting official definition) averaging 330 days. The current bear market – which began June 13 of last year, is at 185 days. The shortest bear market in history, in early 2020, lasted just 33 days. The longest, when the dot com bubble burst, was 929 days.
History says the official bear has a long way to go and the overall downward trend has a long long long way to go.
Last point. Housing cycles are 18 years. 14 up. 4 down. The housing down cycles don’t necessarily correlate directly with the bear markets. They did not in 2001-2003. But when they do, look out below, the probability is extremely high that both will crash. Hard.
Housing prices peaked May 2022. The bear market began in June 2022. You can certainly figure the rest out yourself. I know you are smart because you sun to Greg!
This is why I have dialed in Maximum Safety Mode, with a wee bit of speculation on the side just in case I’m incorrect. (Lawyer are never wrong, they can be incorrect. LOL).
Have a blessed day.
We don't need yields going down driving house prices higher. The Fed will come out hawkish again this week. I'm so sick of market manipulators like Nick the Pig who keep desperately hoping for a a fed pivot. He and his ilk need to be jailed.
It won't last. Just like a couple months ago, Nick the Pig comes out with bullshit and jawbones the market higher. Once the fed comes out this week hawkish once again, MMRI will pop again.
I've been noting that trend as well this has now gone on 4-5 times last year. Each time it seems to take less time to get back up there (greater debt buying needed) If yeilds start spiking again and we go over 250 mmri in short order it probably would be safe to say they are just barely keeping this thing going alot of debt is saturating the system !
Exactly. Yields will start spiking again as they have the past x times (lost count). This same scenario happened right before the holidays and the market was up for a short period, and the Fed threw ice on it just like they will again. Inflation is still through the roof no matter what wallstreet wants everyone to believe.
Well yes it's dropping,. We got The FED to buy all that debt up. 👍😁
The FED is good for the stock market. 😃
I'm trying to find the sheet of paper you're talking about your most recent video
Indeed... Pulling profits..
The energy crisis will probably tank the economy in 2023:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2023/01/09/__trashed/
I think yields will start rising very soon, as the Bank of Japan is preparing for an announcement tomorrow morning. On top of the Bank of Japan, we will also be hearing from members of the ECB, and then Powell right before market open. This could be a perfect storm for massive instability in both the DXY and Bond Yields.
Hope 10 year rips back above 4%
Greg is is possible this just goes on forever ? The people are so stupid I see no one ever fighting back they love to be slaves as long as football is on and they have some lab grown food I dont think people care at all about living in the beast system . Pretty sad