9 Comments

You are a blessing...everything else: a curse

Expand full comment

Powell said there was a shortage of labor. I can tell you it's true. Most of the people I know who own businesses can not find employees. It's a fact. Why work if the govt. is giving free money? Of course if you pay 1 million a month, you will find employees but not at what they were being paid

Expand full comment

As dollar falls , gold and silver are also falling. This is the only losing part of my portfolio. Of course I never buy SLV and GLD but I have some miners/royalty stocks. They all fell today.

Expand full comment

Anyone getting in on xle calls?

Expand full comment

Two days ago

Expand full comment

Do you think it’s got room to run? I agree with Greg, going to get some more events to drive it higher. Another analyst I pay for research set 48.90 as a trigger to get in and it took that out today

Expand full comment

As of this writing, $50 is a large resistance (all the options activity surrounds the $50 strike). 57% of those options expire tomorrow which could cause a stock reversal. This is due to market maker activity (the ones who provide liquidity to the public). On the bright side, the calls are in control when the price reached above $50. If that occurs a drift to $60 is fair to say.

Expand full comment

Greg you are such a beautiful inspiration to light up our days and teach us.

Expand full comment

I think Greg's analysis is slightly off on the economics and market in that if

people aren't buying as much because they have less or are just stuffing money

away, even if prices of consumer items goes up, that will mean the shelves will

be full of "stuff" less and less people are buying. This provides a direct and adverse

effect of the owners of the stores whether brick and mortar or internet stores having

inertial force of increasing stocks of items and less and less sales. In that type of

situation, the stores then have to sell things at a literal loss to keep their cash

liquidity going for operational bases. In this echo chamber, you then have store

owners buying less inventory in months thereafter as consumption drops or finding

less costly suppliers of items who just may be American Producers rather than Chinese

and others as the dollar domestic economy will just work fine regardless of the lower

value of the dollar. Conversely, if the dollar goes down that means just another reason

to produce things inside the US as labor and costs are provisioned in that lower value dollar used

for things produced in the US "and" therefore exports of US Produced, Manufactured

items will go up not down as people with higher valued currencies will buy US Produced

things as well as shift production plants to this environment conducive to both domestic

production/consumption as well as exports as outlined.

In referencing the currency flow ratios as being low, you then have to conjecture than how

can inflation rise above the lower currency flow and other factors? You then have to add

technology advances that rather than incurring higher costs are now producing deflation

synergistics.

So, let's say copper or steel or whatever commodity explodes to higher per ton value

and the US has been importing at lower costs for these same items, this would then

cause pressure from the internal domestic economic environment to mine more here rather

than "over there". This also works in strategic angles as well, as we have seen there are forces

currently trying to divide nations, regions, peoples into competing dynamics all of which

make production, mining, technology production strategically imperative to the US as

"trade routes", "shipping lanes" and free passage over oceans will become more tenuous

as China produces more blue water navy ships and then pushes out their sphere of influence

further much as Japan had done pre WWII and the US has done post WWII and thereafter.

So, whether we get a wave of so called inflation over the next several months the fact remains

there are so many deflationary and economic indices that will be pushing those increases

downward over time with the world economic outlook looking lower even as nations and

companies have to assume more debt. In terms of the 10 Year Yield at or around 1.62 or

so, my own opinion is based, not on just worries about increases of yield here in the US but

more so worldwide downtrends in valuations of bonds in a negative interest environment.

This is not also inclusive of China Bond Failures reported in the last several days so even if

you are a bond buyer, who would you buy your bond from in todays stew of low rates, negative

interest, etc.?

This is not only a US phenomena but more so a worldwide event horizon as well as the

deflationary pressures and lower economic activities in the larger and wider sense. So,

we end up with what folks? People unemployed or under employed, factories idled or

going a 35% of efficiencies, new electric cars traded out across the world for the old

gas and diesel guzzlers via the governments doing these trade in measures to reduce

oil consumption as well as green house gas emissions. This all means we are in for some

"BIG" Changes in the way we live, travel and conduct our lives as well as business. Maybe

all markets will falter for some time but then a New Horizon and New Ways to live and

do business more inclined to better quality of life, more enjoyment of life, and a much

more robust and vibrant societ(ies) over time. Maybe, just maybe the Earth will begin

to be cleaned up by everyone like "family members" maybe some grumbling but cleaning

up the proverbial "house" we all live in. This is an exciting time to live!

Expand full comment