I am a relatively new follower, and I love every posting. I would not miss one. Thank you for sharing your wealth of knowledge as well as trying to keep your followers on the straight and narrow.
Today's post was honest, but a bit painful. Pain I understand. Next year will be my 50th year in the investment management business. I started out of business school right into the jaws of a horrible bear market. Being all business school graduates, we probably had some brains (or so we thought!), but really not a lot of practical experience in managing money. It got so bad that we all went to the library to check out books on how to invest. It was a waste of time. The truth was that everything was going down, and it did not matter what strategy you employed. I remember two stock brokers that were friends would start out each day in the basement of their building praying. Fortunately, I only had a few clients as I was new.
Art Cashin said his Dad told him once that the end of the world was a one-off, and not to worry if that happens. I thought '73-'74 was the end of the world. It did not end. I thought New York City going bankrupt a couple of years later was the end. It did not end. So, too, with '81-'82, and the Crash of '87.
I began to get the hang of it. The world never ends, the money just changes hands to smart people that bought real estate in NYC, the oil patch in early '80, and stocks/bonds in '82 and '87.
I know the title of your newsletter implies it is for trading. It might work for you, but for most people, it is a recipe for under-performance. During the halcyon days of the Magellan Fund, the Fund generated double-digit returns, but Fidelity computed less than 4% for the investors. Why? They traded it.
I have gone through periods just like we are experiencing now. Advising/informing people is a very difficult, thankless job. You have to be a bit of a nut job with an iron central nervous system to do it. You have to enjoy the good parts, but be willing to suffer through the inevitable mistakes. The good news about the mistakes is that they are not important if you get the long-term themes right. Take a look at the Crash of '87 on a long-term chart. It's a blip.
I think the majority of your followers understand that. You are terrific, and a real gift to the investment world. If you get ugly emails from people expecting you to be Nostradamus, ignore them. You constantly remind people to do their own homework, and that you make mistakes, too. Tell them to unsubscribe!
What I am looking for in your posts are "the big picture" and actionable long-term ideas. So should the rest of your followers. As well as the fabulous entertainment aspect! Most importantly, you are telling the truth. You are a good man.
Excellente! My first investing days were same time, 1973-74. That period and the remainder of the inflationary 70s is my usual reference point. You're right, in the long-term scheme of things, even major down-turns usually are mere hiccups. That doesn't mean they're not excrutiatingly painful for folks at the time, and the coming months (maybe years) are likely to be similar.
"The truth was that everything was going down, and it did not matter what strategy you employed."
Sounds good, but it's only half the truth. Not everything has fallen. CASH has risen. Getting out of the market and holding cash is also an investment. If you hold cash and the stock drops 50%, your cash has doubled. You get twice the number of shares for the same money.
Hey Greg, i’ve been kinda hard on you lately. I really appreciate this video. It takes a real man to admit when hes wrong. You may be making a very smart decision. We need more clarity at this moment before we react. Thanks for all your work Greg.
o all the people who read this post, this guy has been proven to be a fraud. He doesn't trade a single penny of his money. I have proven (based on his comments), that every one of his trades did not occur.
Time and sales can be researched in regard to trades. I will continuously prove (if you dare... post your trades), you're a complete fraud. Do not post trades days after it happen, but in real time.
That means: 50.7 % % are invested in the four main positions NY Harbor ULSD , Brent Crude, Gasoline. and WTI Crude. That's a lot. As you know I am expecting WTI going down to 100usd/98usd what would be 10 % downmove. For Natural Gas (PDBC is invested in with 6.36 %) I am expecting an even greater downmove until middle/end of July. So I think PDBC is a good investment but the timing to buy now is really critical (imo). I will wait.
I agree with you. Greg always said commodities will go up when the debt market collapses. If we are "just" in our way to a recession, commodities will drop. Either he is aware 10Y Bond is going to the moon in the short run, or he is making a bad call, imo. Besides, from a perspective of resource consumption, scarcety of raw materials (lower upstream CAPEX in oil&gas in the last 2-3 years) means more volatility in prices. Oil in 200$ or 70 $ in 3 months? who knows, both scenarios are feasible, but looks more like a gamble to me. Let's see.
Any other Veterans of the Officer and/or NCO rank paying attention to the Middle East TAOR? Of particular interest are shifting of arms and personnel to the Syria-Iran Corridor from the Current NATO designated shipment areas.
GM is right, sometimes it is best just to step back and … WAIT. Markets were grossly overvalued in 2021, on top of a decade before. One could have seen this swoon coming, but for greed getting in the way. It will take much longer than most folks think, to revert to the mean. As GM has said, this market is going down much further, maybe taking months. Keep powder dry, await “dream prices” down the road.
Greg I only started watching you in late December of 2021 and have to say it is pretty unnerving to see you get spooked and lose confidence, from "I am the market" and "I intend to buy aggressively moving forward" to "36 and 16% haircut." Things change too rapidly and it angers me to see what the crazy manipulations of the markets have done to you and many others that have been working on improving quality of life to preventing quality of life from diminishing. By design, they want us to own nothing and be mind controlled. You're right that those noises involved in losing money doesn't matter. It's the lessons that count. If anything it's the cost of tuition. You will be grounded and stable again (hopefully). Relax and enjoy your long weekend. Remember to take care of your pancreas and get lots of rest because health is wealth.
I got brain fog pretty bad after catching the original strain virus too. It's a drag, I feel for you. FWIW, been healing it naturally with the protocols described here: https://www.medicalmedium.com/blog/brain-fog
Greg, take a deep breath and relax, a lot of us have been there, markets are in the midst of a paradigm shift as radical as civilization moving from horse drawn carriages to cars. The cabal knows the rational next move of their prey and sets their steel jawed trap in the path. Know the beast, think like the beast, walk where least expected. Be the unusual wolf.
I am a relatively new follower, and I love every posting. I would not miss one. Thank you for sharing your wealth of knowledge as well as trying to keep your followers on the straight and narrow.
Today's post was honest, but a bit painful. Pain I understand. Next year will be my 50th year in the investment management business. I started out of business school right into the jaws of a horrible bear market. Being all business school graduates, we probably had some brains (or so we thought!), but really not a lot of practical experience in managing money. It got so bad that we all went to the library to check out books on how to invest. It was a waste of time. The truth was that everything was going down, and it did not matter what strategy you employed. I remember two stock brokers that were friends would start out each day in the basement of their building praying. Fortunately, I only had a few clients as I was new.
Art Cashin said his Dad told him once that the end of the world was a one-off, and not to worry if that happens. I thought '73-'74 was the end of the world. It did not end. I thought New York City going bankrupt a couple of years later was the end. It did not end. So, too, with '81-'82, and the Crash of '87.
I began to get the hang of it. The world never ends, the money just changes hands to smart people that bought real estate in NYC, the oil patch in early '80, and stocks/bonds in '82 and '87.
I know the title of your newsletter implies it is for trading. It might work for you, but for most people, it is a recipe for under-performance. During the halcyon days of the Magellan Fund, the Fund generated double-digit returns, but Fidelity computed less than 4% for the investors. Why? They traded it.
I have gone through periods just like we are experiencing now. Advising/informing people is a very difficult, thankless job. You have to be a bit of a nut job with an iron central nervous system to do it. You have to enjoy the good parts, but be willing to suffer through the inevitable mistakes. The good news about the mistakes is that they are not important if you get the long-term themes right. Take a look at the Crash of '87 on a long-term chart. It's a blip.
I think the majority of your followers understand that. You are terrific, and a real gift to the investment world. If you get ugly emails from people expecting you to be Nostradamus, ignore them. You constantly remind people to do their own homework, and that you make mistakes, too. Tell them to unsubscribe!
What I am looking for in your posts are "the big picture" and actionable long-term ideas. So should the rest of your followers. As well as the fabulous entertainment aspect! Most importantly, you are telling the truth. You are a good man.
Thank you for everything you do.
Excellente! My first investing days were same time, 1973-74. That period and the remainder of the inflationary 70s is my usual reference point. You're right, in the long-term scheme of things, even major down-turns usually are mere hiccups. That doesn't mean they're not excrutiatingly painful for folks at the time, and the coming months (maybe years) are likely to be similar.
"The truth was that everything was going down, and it did not matter what strategy you employed."
Sounds good, but it's only half the truth. Not everything has fallen. CASH has risen. Getting out of the market and holding cash is also an investment. If you hold cash and the stock drops 50%, your cash has doubled. You get twice the number of shares for the same money.
Great post!
Wow, very nice writeup 😎
Hey Greg, i’ve been kinda hard on you lately. I really appreciate this video. It takes a real man to admit when hes wrong. You may be making a very smart decision. We need more clarity at this moment before we react. Thanks for all your work Greg.
Awesome post! 👍😃
o all the people who read this post, this guy has been proven to be a fraud. He doesn't trade a single penny of his money. I have proven (based on his comments), that every one of his trades did not occur.
Time and sales can be researched in regard to trades. I will continuously prove (if you dare... post your trades), you're a complete fraud. Do not post trades days after it happen, but in real time.
BTW, I want to say thank you for being you.
Which guy are you referring to?
Trumphell666
This is nothing but whipsaw action to the max. A big move north or south will be coming soon 🐱
Explain what you mean by I’m out of equities and only in commodities. If you own commodity stocks, you are in equities.
PDBC
As of March 31, 2022 it includes exposure to the following commodities:
NY Harbor ULSD (13.78 %), Brent Crude (12.96 %), Gasoline (12.57 %), WTI Crude (11.42 %), Wheat (6.86 %), Natural Gas (6.36 %), Gold (6.04 %), Corn (5.54 %), Soybeans (5.46 %), Sugar (4.64 %), Aluminium (4.58 %), Zinc (4.42 %), Copper (3.68 %), Silver (1.67 %)
That means: 50.7 % % are invested in the four main positions NY Harbor ULSD , Brent Crude, Gasoline. and WTI Crude. That's a lot. As you know I am expecting WTI going down to 100usd/98usd what would be 10 % downmove. For Natural Gas (PDBC is invested in with 6.36 %) I am expecting an even greater downmove until middle/end of July. So I think PDBC is a good investment but the timing to buy now is really critical (imo). I will wait.
Here are some basic infos: https://www.invesco.com/us-rest/contentdetail?contentId=03b8588c0971b410VgnVCM100000c2f1bf0aRCRD&dnsName=us
Chart: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PDBC?p=PDBC
I agree with you. Greg always said commodities will go up when the debt market collapses. If we are "just" in our way to a recession, commodities will drop. Either he is aware 10Y Bond is going to the moon in the short run, or he is making a bad call, imo. Besides, from a perspective of resource consumption, scarcety of raw materials (lower upstream CAPEX in oil&gas in the last 2-3 years) means more volatility in prices. Oil in 200$ or 70 $ in 3 months? who knows, both scenarios are feasible, but looks more like a gamble to me. Let's see.
Do you still favor tangible silver? I believe silver is going to go upward and surprise many !
Crop commodities may bring good returns.
Any other Veterans of the Officer and/or NCO rank paying attention to the Middle East TAOR? Of particular interest are shifting of arms and personnel to the Syria-Iran Corridor from the Current NATO designated shipment areas.
GM is right, sometimes it is best just to step back and … WAIT. Markets were grossly overvalued in 2021, on top of a decade before. One could have seen this swoon coming, but for greed getting in the way. It will take much longer than most folks think, to revert to the mean. As GM has said, this market is going down much further, maybe taking months. Keep powder dry, await “dream prices” down the road.
Greg I only started watching you in late December of 2021 and have to say it is pretty unnerving to see you get spooked and lose confidence, from "I am the market" and "I intend to buy aggressively moving forward" to "36 and 16% haircut." Things change too rapidly and it angers me to see what the crazy manipulations of the markets have done to you and many others that have been working on improving quality of life to preventing quality of life from diminishing. By design, they want us to own nothing and be mind controlled. You're right that those noises involved in losing money doesn't matter. It's the lessons that count. If anything it's the cost of tuition. You will be grounded and stable again (hopefully). Relax and enjoy your long weekend. Remember to take care of your pancreas and get lots of rest because health is wealth.
I got brain fog pretty bad after catching the original strain virus too. It's a drag, I feel for you. FWIW, been healing it naturally with the protocols described here: https://www.medicalmedium.com/blog/brain-fog
Excellent article, thanks for posting.
https://youtu.be/8f8wAXDZ9D0
Greg, take a deep breath and relax, a lot of us have been there, markets are in the midst of a paradigm shift as radical as civilization moving from horse drawn carriages to cars. The cabal knows the rational next move of their prey and sets their steel jawed trap in the path. Know the beast, think like the beast, walk where least expected. Be the unusual wolf.
Get away from it all for a few days Greg. Take no thought, clear your mind. You'll know what to do.
Go get your Ferrari buddy. You've earned it. I know you'll be safe with it too.
Z-Stack vitamin
Ivermectin soln in smoothie
Clear cv crap right out of you ♥️💥🙏
I'm not sure what you've gotten wrong......🤔
BLACK FERRARI
genius. know when to fold'em and enter when it's right, keep on gm
Greg has had covid? I have to wonder why. Doesn't he know which supplements to take?