Wait-and-see mode. Could be accumulation, but needs volume + news to fly.
🦅 Birdie’s Final Chirp:
SPY’s at a crossroads — bounce or trap? Oil’s eyeing a run. Gold’s in jet mode 🚀 but due for a breather. BTC is coiling like a spring. XRP... still snoozing under the radar.
💡 Trade like a bird of prey: patient, focused, and always prepared to dive. 🕊️📊
There’s rumors floating around alleging that top secret plans from the Chinese Communist Party have been leaked, indicating that China’s President Xi Jinping views this conflict with the US as the opening to a complete and total war.
Personally I’m skeptical if these leaked documents exist, and if they are legitimate. I don't think anyone has any way to know.
But I will reiterate my view that, while I don’t believe war is imminent or certain, it’s clear that the US and China are closer to conflict now than they have been since at least the 1960s when China participated in the Vietnam War.
It’s not hard to understand why. The two largest economic powers in the world are deliberately trying to hurt one another. And history is full of examples of economic wars which escalate into much larger conflict.
We can certainly hope that cooler heads prevail. But as we used to say in the military, hope is not a course of action... and it’s imperative to acknowledge that this major risk exists.
How might things escalate?
First on the list is the very real and immediate risk of a cyberattack from China.
In fact that’s already happening.
Remember SolarWinds— the massive cyberattack in 2020 where state-sponsored foreign hackers compromised a widely used IT management platform to infiltrate US government agencies and major corporations?
That single attack gave the CCP access to countless US networks.
More recently, a top Chinese official admitted Beijing’s responsibility for the Volt Typhoon cyberattacks targeting US infrastructure, in a closed-door December 2024 meeting.
In 2015, Chinese hackers breached the US Office of Personnel Management and stole sensitive data on over 22 million federal employees, including security clearance files and fingerprints. They were inside the systems for months before they were detected.
And just this week, major US banks including JPMorgan raised the alarm after discovering the email system of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)— a US banking regulator— had been hacked, potentially to steal credentials that gain further access to systems and information.
It doesn’t really matter which of these can be directly linked to the CCP. Russian hackers, North Korean infiltrators, Chinese non-state entities— they are all in it together.
And the fact that China seems to leave everything intact after their attacks, without damaging or disrupting systems, is actually the scariest part.
We’re talking sleeper viruses. Malware that’s already inside the system.
And the target? Some of the most critical infrastructure in the country. The power grid. Water systems. Financial institutions. These aren’t exactly hardened digital fortresses. In fact, many of these systems are laughably insecure.
The US energy sector in particular still operates on shockingly low-tech infrastructure with outdated code. Same story with large parts of our financial system.
I’ve written before about how SWIFT—the nerve center of global financial transfers—was recently running outdated Windows (version 7!!) operating systems.
Bottom line, Chinese hackers and malware are embedded in vulnerable US systems. They have access. They have credentials. Let’s not be naive about this.
Imagine waking up one morning and your bank app doesn’t load. Your credit card doesn’t work. You can’t send a wire, can’t make payroll, can’t even pay your rent. Maybe you don’t even have electricity, or clean running water.
A Plan B for this scenario has never been more important.
The first step is easy— buy a secure home safe, and keep enough cash on hand to pay for a month or two of necessities.
Add some precious metals which allow you to maintain physical custody of some savings, with no third party in between you and your money. Have gold and silver coins and bars in a variety of weights so you could spend them in an emergency.
Holding some cryptocurrency isn’t a bad idea either— offline, on a hardware wallet that can also go in the safe. Again, this takes some of your savings out of the vulnerable financial system, and allows you to maintain physical custody of your funds.
Here’s another key point aside from money: China manufactures over 40% of the world's active pharmaceutical ingredients— the chemical compounds which make up drugs— and up to 95% of particular compounds, such as crucial ingredients in the antibiotic penicillin.
So even if the final product isn't labeled "Made in China," the underlying ingredients may still originate from Chinese manufacturers.
That’s a significant role in the global pharma supply chain that could cause massive disruptions if they chose to weaponize it.
So if you take regular medication, make sure to keep extra on hand.
Having a power generator is another good backup plan, whether it runs on propane or gasoline, or solar panels and batteries. The same goes for extra water storage.
Again, I’m not saying that there’s some imminent danger. But we shouldn’t ignore the risk. And the point is that there’s no downside to taking sensible precautions.
That’s the basic premise of a Plan B: identify the biggest threats against your safety and prosperity, and take reasonable steps now that give you confidence in the face of uncertainty.
These are all fairly easy steps to take that give us options to respond to whatever happens, since none of us know exactly how any of this will play out.
Soon, we’ll discuss additional Plan B strategies that give you even more dexterity in the event of prolonged system disruptions, and equally disruptive potential emergency responses from the US government.
🦅 Birdie Technical Analysis — Friday 4/25/25
“Perch high, scan the charts, and swoop only when the moment’s right.” 🕊️📉📈
📉 SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
📊 Technical Call: Neutral-to-Bearish (short term)
📉 Price: Bouncing, but still below 9 & 18-day SMAs
📈 MACD: Curling up but still under zero — recovery isn’t locked in
↗️ RSI: Around 50, trying to break into bullish zone
🎯 Trade Ideas:
🛑 Bearish Play:
📍 If SPY fails to reclaim 18-day SMA (~545)
💥 Consider Put Spread, targeting pullback to 520
🟢 Bullish Play:
📍 Break & hold above 545 w/ volume
🚀 Upside target: 560 zone
🦅 Birdie Note: Market’s flapping its wings, but still stuck in the wind. Wait for confirmation before flight.
🛢️ USO (United States Oil Fund)
📊 Technical Call: Bullish Bias – Short-Term Recovery
📈 Price: Regaining ground, heading toward $71–72 resistance (18-day SMA)
📈 MACD: Curling for bullish crossover
↗️ RSI: Around 50 – still has plenty of sky above
🎯 Trade Idea:
🟢 Bullish Play:
📍 On clean break above $72 with volume
🚀 Consider Calls or Long Position, targeting $75–76
🦅 Birdie Note: Oil’s heating up again. Keep an eye on that $72 breakout perch — could be a strong liftoff.
🪙 GLD (Gold ETF)
📊 Technical Call: Strong Bullish Trend – Watch for Pullback
🚀 Price: Riding the upper Bollinger Band — vertical flight in progress
📈 MACD: Explosive upside momentum
⚠️ RSI: Deep into overbought territory (75–80)
🎯 Trade Idea:
💛 Bullish on Dip:
📍 Pullback to $300–305 support zone
🛒 Buy the Dip or use Call Spreads
🦅 Birdie Note: The gold eagle's soaring high — don’t chase it. Wait for it to glide back before jumping in.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
📊 Technical Call: Neutral-to-Bullish Consolidation
🔄 Structure: Post-parabolic cooldown — sideways digestion
🟢 MACD: Above zero, starting to converge — watch for next bullish cross
↔️ RSI: In the 50s — room for liftoff, or dip
🎯 Outlook:
🪂 Coiling for the next move. Above resistance = breakout. Below = deeper cooldown.
💠 XRP
📊 Technical Call: Bearish-to-Neutral – Needs Catalyst
🔻 Structure: Base building, momentum struggles
📉 MACD: Trying to flatten after prolonged drop
📉 RSI: Hovering in 40s, still low energy
🎯 Outlook:
Wait-and-see mode. Could be accumulation, but needs volume + news to fly.
🦅 Birdie’s Final Chirp:
SPY’s at a crossroads — bounce or trap? Oil’s eyeing a run. Gold’s in jet mode 🚀 but due for a breather. BTC is coiling like a spring. XRP... still snoozing under the radar.
💡 Trade like a bird of prey: patient, focused, and always prepared to dive. 🕊️📊
Need charts or alerts? Just squawk 🐦.
Your way to serious
GM. Thank you for the hard work you do.
It is all the enemies with in that came in 1563
In high school there were the cool teachers who wouldn't turn you in for smoking
Today there are cool judges who will hide criminals in the back room
FYI:
April 17, 2025
There’s rumors floating around alleging that top secret plans from the Chinese Communist Party have been leaked, indicating that China’s President Xi Jinping views this conflict with the US as the opening to a complete and total war.
Personally I’m skeptical if these leaked documents exist, and if they are legitimate. I don't think anyone has any way to know.
But I will reiterate my view that, while I don’t believe war is imminent or certain, it’s clear that the US and China are closer to conflict now than they have been since at least the 1960s when China participated in the Vietnam War.
It’s not hard to understand why. The two largest economic powers in the world are deliberately trying to hurt one another. And history is full of examples of economic wars which escalate into much larger conflict.
We can certainly hope that cooler heads prevail. But as we used to say in the military, hope is not a course of action... and it’s imperative to acknowledge that this major risk exists.
How might things escalate?
First on the list is the very real and immediate risk of a cyberattack from China.
In fact that’s already happening.
Remember SolarWinds— the massive cyberattack in 2020 where state-sponsored foreign hackers compromised a widely used IT management platform to infiltrate US government agencies and major corporations?
That single attack gave the CCP access to countless US networks.
More recently, a top Chinese official admitted Beijing’s responsibility for the Volt Typhoon cyberattacks targeting US infrastructure, in a closed-door December 2024 meeting.
In 2015, Chinese hackers breached the US Office of Personnel Management and stole sensitive data on over 22 million federal employees, including security clearance files and fingerprints. They were inside the systems for months before they were detected.
And just this week, major US banks including JPMorgan raised the alarm after discovering the email system of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)— a US banking regulator— had been hacked, potentially to steal credentials that gain further access to systems and information.
It doesn’t really matter which of these can be directly linked to the CCP. Russian hackers, North Korean infiltrators, Chinese non-state entities— they are all in it together.
And the fact that China seems to leave everything intact after their attacks, without damaging or disrupting systems, is actually the scariest part.
We’re talking sleeper viruses. Malware that’s already inside the system.
And the target? Some of the most critical infrastructure in the country. The power grid. Water systems. Financial institutions. These aren’t exactly hardened digital fortresses. In fact, many of these systems are laughably insecure.
The US energy sector in particular still operates on shockingly low-tech infrastructure with outdated code. Same story with large parts of our financial system.
I’ve written before about how SWIFT—the nerve center of global financial transfers—was recently running outdated Windows (version 7!!) operating systems.
Bottom line, Chinese hackers and malware are embedded in vulnerable US systems. They have access. They have credentials. Let’s not be naive about this.
Imagine waking up one morning and your bank app doesn’t load. Your credit card doesn’t work. You can’t send a wire, can’t make payroll, can’t even pay your rent. Maybe you don’t even have electricity, or clean running water.
A Plan B for this scenario has never been more important.
The first step is easy— buy a secure home safe, and keep enough cash on hand to pay for a month or two of necessities.
Add some precious metals which allow you to maintain physical custody of some savings, with no third party in between you and your money. Have gold and silver coins and bars in a variety of weights so you could spend them in an emergency.
Holding some cryptocurrency isn’t a bad idea either— offline, on a hardware wallet that can also go in the safe. Again, this takes some of your savings out of the vulnerable financial system, and allows you to maintain physical custody of your funds.
Here’s another key point aside from money: China manufactures over 40% of the world's active pharmaceutical ingredients— the chemical compounds which make up drugs— and up to 95% of particular compounds, such as crucial ingredients in the antibiotic penicillin.
So even if the final product isn't labeled "Made in China," the underlying ingredients may still originate from Chinese manufacturers.
That’s a significant role in the global pharma supply chain that could cause massive disruptions if they chose to weaponize it.
So if you take regular medication, make sure to keep extra on hand.
Having a power generator is another good backup plan, whether it runs on propane or gasoline, or solar panels and batteries. The same goes for extra water storage.
Again, I’m not saying that there’s some imminent danger. But we shouldn’t ignore the risk. And the point is that there’s no downside to taking sensible precautions.
That’s the basic premise of a Plan B: identify the biggest threats against your safety and prosperity, and take reasonable steps now that give you confidence in the face of uncertainty.
These are all fairly easy steps to take that give us options to respond to whatever happens, since none of us know exactly how any of this will play out.
Soon, we’ll discuss additional Plan B strategies that give you even more dexterity in the event of prolonged system disruptions, and equally disruptive potential emergency responses from the US government.
To your freedom,
James Hickman
Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC
Now I know my enemy...
When did you write this? I'm looking at the S&P and it closed at 546, above the 18 & 9 day SMA why did you say it was still below them?