170 Comments
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Gregory Brinkley's avatar

Despite the gloom... God Bless the Orange Man and His Attempt to Right the Ship that The Ghost Biden Capsized.

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Peter's avatar

With any luck America will be as successful as one of the Duppy's casinos.

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gerkenstein's avatar

And all that was set in motion decades ago.

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Stop Chemtrails Michigan's avatar

Hear, hear!!

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Jim's avatar

HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAH Greg please get some meds for the TDS.. This is much bigger than one politician you dont like. Did we not all know this was going to happen based on the hiding the real situation for the last 10 years. For 4 years now we have had false stats out every month. ITs Trump fault ........ Never new one man could live in so many heads 24/7

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Mark B's avatar

100% agree

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Mike Ware's avatar

Thanks Jim, you are so right!

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ThirteenKidsLater's avatar

I think Greg has been pretty clear over time that this crisis was coming one way or another and is not Trump’s fault, but that Trump is accelerating the process with back and forth tariff policies that companies cannot rely on to make longer term decisions. Please stop throwing pejorative terms around. It doesn’t add to a productive discussion.

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Charlie's avatar

What is the peorative term you are referring to?

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Michael Myers's avatar

Who got sucked in by the snake oil salesman?? Trump is owned by the banks, stupid fuckin goy. More likely unit 8200. Trumpkins look up operation “trust.” His right hand man is a brain chip maker??? Is Hillary still locked up?? As dumb as liberals.

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Jim's avatar

I think your mask is too tight

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gerkenstein's avatar

That's why they try to kill him and throw him in jail? Cause they love him so much? LOL. Makes sense if you're 12 IQ

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Matlock's avatar

Look stupid it is not the economy, it is the moral failure of America,

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Mark B's avatar

You are just another added name to the many angry people following this blog!

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Kat's avatar

He is doing what is allowed, the last administration just looted and jumped ship.

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Mark B's avatar

Something seems odd with the Dow. Only one stock seems to be down substantially

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Stanley Striker's avatar

Rent Free.

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gerkenstein's avatar

Greg is starting to get ratioed on his own blog. LOL

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throwaway's avatar

Jim and others, gaslighting is unacceptable. You are going to get your accounts banned for violating substack guidelines.

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Jim's avatar

Gaslighting? I am just stating the obvious! How about we get back on track and discuss how to make money in this market.

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throwaway's avatar

Using a indirectly referential pejorative claiming they have a delusional mental illness is gaslighting.

There is no way to make reliable money in the market anymore. You need to produce things, but money printing/debasement has forced the prices lower than most business can earn a profit at. This is why you have fewer and fewer businesses over time aggregating in fewer and fewer hands.

Price discovery (economic calculation), has completely failed at the 1st order producer level because they get their inputs through buying contracts, and price discovery requires a market. With there being >50% of market transactions happening off-exchange, there can be no price discovery, and by extension no control over costs.

Adam Smith covered the basic requirements that are required for any economic participant to engage in economic activity. Both are derived from a constant purchasing power, which money debasement has destroyed.

If you can't see the issue with what you are doing, you show yourself to be delusional, or worse infantile. Its not a discussion when you impose cost through invective, or even an argument when you do that.

It is coercive play acting, the same type that toddler's engage in. Its unacceptable in discussion or debate because it uses the same elements used in torture.

You show yourself objectively to be an evil person when you do those things, and continue doing them without resistance or thought.

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Jim's avatar

Not sure I said anyone had a delusional mental illness. Unless you recognize that TDS is mental illness? I completely disagree with you on there is no way to make money in this market. Volatility will give way to money making opportunities. Its not along term investments

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Stanley Striker's avatar

Careful, Jim. *throwaway is here from Reddit to sic the Jannies on you.

lol

There's never been any name-calling on this forum before..rofl even.

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throwaway's avatar

No, that's quite clearly flawed reasoning and dissembling. Toxic.

Recognition of a mental disease need not be recognized in the DSM, the indirect implication via a label is sufficient when it is tied to symptoms definitionally, which it has been.

You communicated TDS, that's based in irrational belief, which is also called delusion when that belief in reality is false. There is no set definition given the folk nature of the term, but a label based in psychological criteria is sufficient to say yes you did given its recognition as a pejorative, you can't weasel your way out of what you said and did.

Absent price discovery which is compromised, there is no way to tell the money making opportunities with any reasonable confidence level. It is chance if you make money.

Volatility, which is another word for chaos, will shrink the remaining market, forcing money printing which shrinks the market more until the market can no longer be sustained. This results in a collapse to non-market socialism, which fails to the socialist calculation problem as described by Mises, leading to full scale socio-economic collapse. The observations you see showing this behavior are the same as any sieve, which is a continual trend of a small number of companies increasing marketshare, and no new companies entering the market. Eventually those companies fail to deflationary pressure because it is far easier to create distortions given their market dominance by artificial supply constraints to drive volatility. In other words, price fixing. These distortions show the economic calculation problem in effect. There are many companies that have done this, the most recent being the egg producers who somehow produced 20% more eggs (pre-cull), after they'd culled half their flock, and used the bird flu to price fix at $15 for 12 eggs at the local grocery store.

We are already seeing self-sustaining shortage, next is famine, then slavery, then death/annihilation, with the environment being mathematically chaotic driving this forward. Unpredictable, unknowable, but with known general outcomes.

The kind of reasoning you follow is the same kind that a person wearing a blindfold on a train going at top speed over a cliff says before they actually see/feel the predictable outcomes. Many of the laws in economics are just as real as the laws of physics like gravity.

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Stanley Striker's avatar

You talk of things like Volatility, Price discovery, self-sustaining shortage. Can you share how you're able to see the future? Because I sure could use some lotto numbers right about now....

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gerkenstein's avatar

Keep betting against the dollar. it has to get devalued.

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gerkenstein's avatar

So you have TDS too?

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Elishia's avatar

You seem to ignore that today’s economy is the result of 4 years of Biden mismanagement. It will take more than 3 months to undo the previous administration’s blunders.

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Charles Klauder's avatar

More like 112 years of the mess made by the not-fed un-reserve.

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Mike Ware's avatar

Amen to that Elishia. President Trump is correcting 75yrs of this country giving away the farm and I guess Mannarino has been happy with that. He railed against it all until Trump came along and is trying to actually do something about it. He doesn’t like that either. What’s his plan?

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Peter's avatar

This is not an argument as it is no different than saying Biden inherited 4 years of Trump mismanagement.

You've been duped by the Duppy.

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gerkenstein's avatar

Trump gave us 8% increase in REal median houshehold income at least.

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Mike Ware's avatar

The dupes are the Mannarino parrot 🦜 heads!!!

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Jim C's avatar

Someone better tell my clients things are bad, we are on fire here. Land Surveyor in South Florida. I noticed in the last 2 weeks the RE market is back on fire. Existing homes sales orders through the roof. Home improvement projects through the roof. New pool orders, through the roof. the only thing still lagging is new home sales, which, in my experience, picks back up a couple of months after the existing home market takes back off.

I keep seeing all this doom and gloom and keep bracing for the worst, things just keep ramping up business wise.

I just purchased my one crew a new vehicle, I have a Lidar equipment demo tomorrow to possibly purchase as I try to find ways to be more efficient without hiring (see doom and gloom above) just in case there is a speck of a chance this will impact me. I am still in 2008 mode here.

CPA called me Monday, I had record profits in 2024, had to dish an additional 11K to the IRS on top of my usual taxes.

Retail in this area: Shopping centers packed to the rafters, no parking, must park in overflow lots and hike to stores.

Restaurants all packed with 30-60 minute waits to get in if you do not have a reservation. Its so crazy here, we stopped going out to eat because it is too crowded.

So either 90% of the population has no clue, or things are not as bad as it appears. Most everyone I talk to that has money in the markets are waiting them out, most think this is a masterclass in renegotiating our America last trade deals and we are going to come out of this stronger than ever. I share their optimism. The path Obama, Joe and the and Bushes had us on was not sustainable.

Is the glass half empty or half full?

Flame away I do not GAF.

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Mike Ware's avatar

Same here, just south of Daytona Beach. Booming, just from general observations of construction and restaurants and retail. Everything crowded and traffic is jammed! Had a blip in my investments and in one week I’m back at my all time highs! Up $150k in 7 days! Thank you President Trump for upsetting the politicos and Wall Street banksters and gangsters! This is Epic! We are witnessing the transformation of this country back to the FUTURE! I thank the Lord for spanking the country and then allowing President Trump back in to right the whole ship!

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Dan Popa's avatar

Thanks-... but all my comments are being removed.

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Mike Ware's avatar

I can see this one Popa.

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Dan Popa's avatar

ty

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Mike Ware's avatar

No worries

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Jay Horton's avatar

Not in your business but as I look around, I see almost the same here in God's Country, NCFL.

Best to you for your continued success!

Later Jay

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throwaway's avatar

The economics are unsustainable, anytime you have a lot of money printing injecting liquidity you see a boom bust cycle. The real estate numbers are not good in other parts of the country, and Florida always seems to be the first area hit when it comes to financial crises, leading other markets. The broad economic numbers don't indicate a boom, so if you are seeing a massive boom its local, and there is a massive bust coming.

Investing is also completely divorced from reality thanks in large part to FASAB S-56 which allows companies to edit their filing requirements as needed keeping two sets of books, one of which is not disclosed, if they have any kind of national security things going or receive NSLs. This coupled with the fact that over half of all transactions occur off-exchange without impacting the price which prevents any kind of price discovery means there will be chaos, and you can't judge the environment in any rational way because its a stochastic environment (mathematically chaotic, inherently unknowable, unpredictable, and which there are few tools to forecast accurately).

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Jim C's avatar

This substack has turned into another liberal shithole. Looks like an extension of Reddit without the moderator deleting and banning all the dissenters.

I am out before I am banned.

It was a nice run Greg, I used to enjoy your take, you used to keep it very non political, even during the 4 years of the brain dead potato in office.

Good luck rasta man, smoke a bowl for me.

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GABBY's avatar

Florida is not the brightest bulb of states, they'll spend way more than they earn.

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Mike Ware's avatar

I guess that’s why folks are moving here in droves. Unfortunately, most of them seem to be carpetbaggers from liberal hellholes who keep voting for communists!

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Jay Horton's avatar

Gabby, site something as I believe you are massively incorrect regarding the operations of Florida.

Best,

Later Jay

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Jim C's avatar

Look everyone a liberal elitist asshole.

Florida is quickly becoming Wall Street South, all the big money is moving Palm Beach / Broward and Dade counties.

I guess dim bulbs like living in a free state without an oppressive Governor who locks you down for 2 years.

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GABBY's avatar

The most crooked dictator Governor, not even close to a free state. That's delusional.

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Jim C's avatar

We opened up in July 2020.

The nation called us Covidiots.

You have a short memory.

Now run off and get your 5th booster elitist asshole

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GABBY's avatar

How Southern charming are you? I live here too, it's a shit show Welfare State. No shots taken as I'm brighter than that but my eyes are wide open to the FLORIDUH corruption. Good ole boys club care nothing about you or me.

Bless your heart

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Doug Bonestroo's avatar

Agree with you! Great commentary.

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Henkel's avatar

He’s doing his job drain the swamp agenda, 2030 He’s back to finish what he started

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GABBY's avatar

How is the swamp being drained? Proof

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Lloyd  Gilham's avatar

USAID is one example. You will have to do your own research for the rest of the proof.

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GABBY's avatar

👍

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Henkel's avatar

We the people are the swamp humanity is the swamp

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William  King's avatar

As usual Greg is spot on with his unfortunate analysis.

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J B R's avatar

We sit here and complain about the Fiat system. We'll, let's bring it down and get rid of it. Then , when you actually have that going on before your very eyes, then we complain about that. Which is it? Going to be some pain either way.

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Mike Ware's avatar

You are so right J B R. Mannarino bitched and moaned about it for YEARS! And now that the President is doing the heavy lifting, Greg is coming absolutely unglued. It’s kinda sad to witness, to be frank. Trump has even driven him Rasta! And I believe he’s been smoking that “religion”?

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The Albanian's avatar

Trump inherited a huge mess. He is attempting to get america back to a constitutional republic. China has been at war with us for decades. Politicians sold us out

They have hollowed out the middle class for money. Thus is holy week so you remember judas?

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Harcourt F Mudd (Harry)'s avatar

A huge "mess":

lowest unemployment in 50 years

16M jobs created

2.7 GDP

record small business formation

stock market all time highs

post Covid inflation tamed

wage growth outpaced inflation

record oil production

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throwaway's avatar

The numbers reported don't accurately reflect the reality.

I work in IT, I have a decade of experience and for the last two years now 50% of my professional network is out of work, 30% has barely been getting by with contract work at under market rates.

The moment you have no visibility on a problem where the reality reflects something quite different is the moment you know your goose is cooked because there is no signal to correct course. It will get worse, continually, until it all breaks and society breaks down.

This is how 5GW works.

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gerkenstein's avatar

Being replaced by AI?

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The Albanian's avatar

Yes Trump inherited the mess and turned it around

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Thetech's avatar

Greg...we may be fucked...but we were already fucked. You think this would have been better with that hag in the oval office? Please... This all NEEDS to happen in order to get back on track, and yes, trying to get back on track may end us, but at least SOMEBODY TRIED SOMETHING, as it was over anyway. Isn't that what you've been preaching for a decade? Embrace the collapse.

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Michael Brinsco's avatar

Howard Lutnick is tasked to raise $1trillion in tax revenue. He has developed Tethers current business model and will remain to be seen if this plan works for the US. He is the secretary of commerce and plays a major role in this plan. (Tax revenue increase) Also, Stephen Miran is considered the "brain behind the tariff policy." Trump is just the front man for this long drawn out master plan. Only time will tell if it works. And if it does, expect income tax to be eliminated

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Big P's avatar

Give the Bourbon a break Greg......start taking some vitamins......do some yoga.....everything that is happening......needs to happen......stop listening to MSM

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Sylvain's avatar

And yet, still no recession

shiller p/e through the roof, no bargains to be found

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Richard Woolard's avatar

IMO there could be no other in office for such a time as this and I’m confident that this audience sees beneath the surface of that statement.

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Mike Taylor's avatar

All by design, planned and executed perfectly. The results are what we're to be expected.. Imagine MY shocked face 😱😱, let that sink in.. Trump and Co. have achieved at least what they wanted so far... Guns, gold and a getaway plan. Prepared not scared..

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Ray's avatar

So the argument is that he was selected and not elected. If that is the case why bother torching the guy. He is just following the script so no need to get triggered. Ignore the dogs and pay attention to the handlers.

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Mike Taylor's avatar

I think you misinterpreted my message. I am pro Trump. I do believe that he is selected as most or all in so called democratic western countries. What he is doing is what he campaigned on... The results albeit frustrating are what is to be expected. I learned long ago to be my own bank, although my stock portfolio is way down I hoped but did realize it was gambling. My PM (held in real time) not a paper currency has been doing very very well since 2011... So I am well positioned. I never torch Trump. He has handlers and the sooner we all realize there is two levels fighting for humanity. Evil is strong but if it was so strong and one sided we would have all been done long ago. We are still here because the fight above our pay grade continues. Hope that clarifies.. Trump isn't perfect, he is no messiah but he fights against the evil, just my opinion. Heck he could have taken America to war with Iran, he just refused against the Jewish cabal namely Bibi Netanyahu.. 😉🙏😁

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Mark B's avatar

And it’s gonna get much worse.

ITS TIME TO TAKE DOWN THE CORRUPT DEEP STATE.

Be careful, Greg is very misleading.

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Charles Klauder's avatar

My take is that we need to end the fiat monetary system. I don't know if Trump has a clue but if he wants to return financial health to the nation we need to end the not-fed-un-reserve criminal cartel. We need to enforce fiscal prudence from the top down. The only way to curb government growth and inefficiently is the remove the punch bowl of unlimited currency. Inflation is a tax as are tariffs but the not-fed-un-reserve needs to go as the first step to have even a hope of something better down the road. Trump needs to open his mouth and make that case.

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gerkenstein's avatar

How do you do that? How do you deal with the 37 trillion debt...What does that transition look like...

Either way... the dollar gets devalued.

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Charles Klauder's avatar

Greg is right on on path. We take whatever gold and sliver the US government has and revalue it to whatever value allows us to buy back /replace all M2 currency, Bank currency, and all the bonds that are fed note denominated world wide. It will be very painful for about 3 months but if we did it we would go back to a constrained monetary system that can only grow as be pull resources out of the ground. It would mean radical revaluation of all assets mostly down but the up side is we can start using pennies again. We could still use digital and paper money it would just have to be fully backed by a real asset that is sequestered and audited against that liability.

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gerkenstein's avatar

So... instead of a gradual devaluation of the dollar, he wants us to do it all at once... That's what I'm hearing...

Am I wrong?

We still lose currency reserve status... We effectively reneg on our debts and nobody will lend money to us again.

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Charles Klauder's avatar

I am not an expert but I believe that about 70% of the US Bonds are owned internally within the US. We would revalue fed debt notes at 1000 or 10000 to one or whatever number works. We would end up shipping about half of our gold out to the rest of the world to address the gaps and pull back all the Euro dollars that are underpinning much of the world economy. It will be a huge game of musical chairs but on the other side many of the perverse incentives that have driven us to this point would no longer exist.

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gerkenstein's avatar

So in summary, massive devaluation either way.

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Mike Ware's avatar

Agreed

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